Zloty Extends Move Away From Recent Cyclical Lows

EUR/PLN has edged higher and last deals +109 pips at 4.4591, with bulls keeping an eye on the 20-EMA, which kicks in at 4.4625 and has already been attacked today. Bears look for losses past Jun 22 cycle low of 4.4195, which would expose the PLN4.4 figure.

• POLGBs are slightly firmer across the curve, with belly outperforming. The Finance Ministry will offer PLN4-7bn of bonds at today's auction.
• S&P raised its 2023 GDP growth outlook for Poland by 0.2pp to +1.1% Y/Y and lowered the 2024 outlook by the same amount to +3.2%. They expect one 25bp rate cut from the NBP by the end of this year.
• State development fund PFR head Pawel Borys said that the extension of mortgage payment holidays would be justified if interest rates remained high. PM Morawiecki yesterday suggested that the decision on a potential extension could be announced within two months.