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Zloty Finds Stability After NBP Presser

PLN

EUR/PLN is barely changed around neutral levels and last deals at 4.2844, pausing NBP-induced losses. The next level of note is the psychologically significant 4.25 figure. On the flip side, bulls look for a break above the round figure/100-DMA at 4.3000/78.

  • NBP Governor Adam Glapinski's rhetoric shifted in the hawkish direction, which he explicitly acknowledged during his press conference. He guided that the central bank could cut rates in mid-2025, pushing back his earlier forecast of 1Q25.
  • Both Governor Glapinski and Finance Minister Domanski suggested that the zloty could appreciate further on the back of widening rate differentials.
  • POLGB curve runs flatter, with 3s underperforming as we type. FRAs stabilise after yesterday's upticks.
  • The release of NBP minutes this afternoon should not move markets, given that the document is related to a meeting held several weeks ago.
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