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Zloty Keeps Marginal Gains, Core CPI Eases As Expected

PLN

EUR/PLN trades -27 pips at 4.4503, holding a narrow range today. Key technical targets for the pair are unchanged, with bears eyeing Jul 4 low of 4.4138. USD/PLN is little changed on the day, consolidating below the 4.00 mark.

  • Poland's core CPI inflation slowed to +11.1% Y/Y in June from +11.5% prior, in line with the consensus forecast. The official print rarely provides surprises, given that the estimates are based on final headline CPI readings released beforehand.
  • The focus turns to the back end of the week, with Poland due to report June activity indicators. They will shed light on Q2 growth momentum amid earlier signs of weakness. Barring big surprises, they should not materially affect the NBP's calculus.
  • POLGBs have advanced today, with the curve flattening and 5s outperforming. Local FRAs remain under pressure, operating at/near cyclical lows.
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