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Zloty Lags Regional Peers as Markets Await NBP

PLN
EURPLN has steadily appreciated for the majority of the session, placing PLN close to the bottom of the EMEA FX pile (PLNHUF: -0.37%; PLNCZK: +0.12%). The cross has traded above yesterday’s highs with bulls looking for additional gains toward the Sep 12 high/round figure/61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2023 downleg at 4.6971/4.7000/4.7072.
  • The market is in waiting mode ahead of tomorrow's highly uncertain NBP rate decision. Consensus (16/33 economists in a Bloomberg survey) looks for a 25bp cut to the main policy rate, but 9 analysts expect a 50bp cut, 1 expects a 75bp move, while 7 are looking for a pause. See our preview here.
  • Earlier today, the head of the finance ministry’s public debt department said Poland may return to international bond markets before the year-end in an effort to pre-finance a surge in 2024 borrowing needs, as was reported by Bloomberg. He said the government will continue to keep at least 75% of zloty-denominated bonds even as the government plans to rely more heavily on foreign financing next year.

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