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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PLN
EUR/PLN has gained sharply this morning, after the formation of a dragonfly Doji candlestick yesterday, which indicated that the earlier downtrend was showing signs of exhaustion. The pair turned bid subsequently, with the zloty underperforming its CE3 peers as we type.
- Today's upswing has allowed EUR/PLN to fully unwind losses registered over the past two trading days on the back of amendments to Poland's 2023 budget bill, which involved widening the deficit target. Several sell-side desks flagged expectations that the move could reduce the odds of NBP rate cuts in coming months.
- When this is being typed, EUR/PLN trades +362 pips at PLN4.4826. The broader downtrend remains intact for now, but bulls could be looking for some near-term gains, following a return above former channel floor. A move through the 20-EMA at PLN4.4985 would support their case. Bears look for a resumption of losses past yesterday's cyclical low of PLN4.4307.
- Poland's economic docket is headlined by April current account balance, due at 13:00BST/14:00CEST, which comes on the heels of fairly strong outturns over 1Q2023. Millenium Bank wrote this morning that a "diminishing imbalance in international transactions supports zloty strengthening but does not explain the scale and pace of the recent appreciation of the Polish currency."
Fig. 1: EUR/PLN Returns Above Broken Channel Floor
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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