Zloty Loses Ground, Inflation Data In Focus

EUR/PLN has ticked higher amid broad-based greenback strength. The pair last operates at 4.3194, up 44 pips on the day, with bulls looking to force a break above the 50-EMA (4.3239), which would open up Feb 7 high of 4.3564. On the downside, the focus falls on the psychologically significant 4.3000 figure and Mar 11 low of 4.2749.

• Statistics Poland will release flash CPI data for March tomorrow at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. Analysts polled by Bloomberg look for a further decline in headline inflation to +2.3% Y/Y from +2.8% recorded in February. MPC members have also been signalling that inflation could undershoot the +2.5% Y/Y target, but there is broad consensus that it will rebound later in the year.
• On that front, the biggest supermarket retail chain said it will not raise prices after the reinstatement of the regular 5% VAT on food next month, joining several of its main competitors. The ongoing "price war" between big retail chains is expected to reduce the impact of the imminent VAT hike on CPI inflation.
• POLGBs are a tad softer across the curve; WIG20 has added 1.4%.