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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PLN
EUR/PLN trades on the front foot, with the zloty lagging most its EMEA peers (all save for the TRY). The rate last deals at 4.4737, up 58 pips on the day. A break above Jul 6 high of 4.5040 is needed to indicate that bullish momentum is picking up, raising a prospect of near-term recovery. Bears look for a pullback through the 4.45 mark and towards Jul 31 low of 4.3986.
- Participants keep adding dovish NBP bets amid growing conviction that the central bank could cut rates as soon as at the September 12-13 meeting. The upcoming CPI data on Thursday will provide another key input, with the focus falling on whether price growth slowed below the psychologically significant +10% Y/Y barrier. Inflation data will be published alongside final Q2 GDP and soft readings would increase the odds of faster, deeper cuts. For now, 3-Month WIBOR/PLN FRA 3x6 spread has widened to levels last seen in 2012, implying that the market is pricing relatively steep easing by the year-end.
- Another point of note locally is the 2024 budget draft approved by the Cabinet last week. The spending plan implies an upsurge in borrowing needs coupled with a wider-than-expected budget deficit, which applied some pressure to local debt markets over the past two days. POLGBs have stabilised today, as core FI markets are slightly firmer.
Fig. 1: 3-Month WIBOR vs. PLN FRA 3x6/6x9
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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