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POLAND: Zloty Prints Best Levels Since 2018, Finance Ministry Holds Bond Auction

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News
  • EUR/PLN attacked the key 4.20 figure yesterday, hitting its worst levels since 2018, in the absence of notable domestic releases. Bank Pocztowy Chief Economist Monika Kurtek said that this raises a question whether such a strong zloty should encourage the MPC to cut interest rates. Last week, ING wrote that the zloty is underpinned by a reassessment of Donald Trump's tariff threats, the NBP's hawkish monetary policy, and Poland's relatively limited exposure to potential disruptions in global trade. Meanwhile, Citi Handlowy wrote that the zloty might be drawing support from hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine (they quoted an increase in the number of relevant queries from investors). Furthermore, they noted that according to their analyses the sensitivity of inflation to the exchange rate increased in 2022, which should be good news for the MPC.
  • Speaking to ISB News, MPC's Iwona Duda reaffirmed her view that the room for lowering interest rates may open towards the end of 2025, while a discussion on monetary easing could start in March. She called for caution in setting monetary policy amid the need to avoid stabilising inflation at elevated levels and suggested that the inflation projections published in March and July will provide crucial information on the optimal course of action.
  • President Andrzej Duda's top aide Marcin Mastalerek said that there was an invitation from US President Donald Trump to meet in November but he "messed up" and failed to coordinate the calendars of the two leaders.
  • The Finance Ministry is looking to sell PLN5bn-8bn of OK0127, PS0729, PS0130, WZ0330, DS1034 and IZ0836 bonds at an auction today.
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  • EUR/PLN attacked the key 4.20 figure yesterday, hitting its worst levels since 2018, in the absence of notable domestic releases. Bank Pocztowy Chief Economist Monika Kurtek said that this raises a question whether such a strong zloty should encourage the MPC to cut interest rates. Last week, ING wrote that the zloty is underpinned by a reassessment of Donald Trump's tariff threats, the NBP's hawkish monetary policy, and Poland's relatively limited exposure to potential disruptions in global trade. Meanwhile, Citi Handlowy wrote that the zloty might be drawing support from hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine (they quoted an increase in the number of relevant queries from investors). Furthermore, they noted that according to their analyses the sensitivity of inflation to the exchange rate increased in 2022, which should be good news for the MPC.
  • Speaking to ISB News, MPC's Iwona Duda reaffirmed her view that the room for lowering interest rates may open towards the end of 2025, while a discussion on monetary easing could start in March. She called for caution in setting monetary policy amid the need to avoid stabilising inflation at elevated levels and suggested that the inflation projections published in March and July will provide crucial information on the optimal course of action.
  • President Andrzej Duda's top aide Marcin Mastalerek said that there was an invitation from US President Donald Trump to meet in November but he "messed up" and failed to coordinate the calendars of the two leaders.
  • The Finance Ministry is looking to sell PLN5bn-8bn of OK0127, PS0729, PS0130, WZ0330, DS1034 and IZ0836 bonds at an auction today.