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Zloty Slips Alongside CE3 Peers, Transitory Cabinet Sworn In

PLN

EUR/PLN failed to breach support from Nov 21 low of 4.3411 yesterday and has edged higher today. The pair last changes hands +100 pips at 4.3545, ticking away from recent cyclical lows, with CE3 currencies under some light pressure.

  • The 20-EMA intersects at 4.3988, providing the initial layer of resistance. On the flip side, bears look for renewed losses past Nov 21 low of 4.3795 and towards Mar 12, 2020 low of 4.3237.
  • The President appointed Prime Minister Morawiecki's Cabinet, which is expected to be voted down in parliament within two weeks. After the vote of confidence (expected on December 11), the ball will be in parliament's court, allowing the new majority to nominate its PM candidate. This will open the door to the appointment of Donald Tusk as Prime Minister, possibly on December 13.
  • Looking ahead, flash November CPI and final Q3 GDP will take focus Thursday. The CPI report may show that disinflation has paused, with consensus looking for a headline inflation rate of +6.6% Y/Y, a repeat of the October reading.
  • POLGB curve has bull steepened, with the short end pacing gains, as yields sit 1.0-3.9bp lower. The WIG20 Index has added 0.5%.
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