Zloty Ticks Higher Ahead Of Tomorrow's NBP Rate Decision

EUR/PLN stays within yesterday's range, last operating -42 pips at 4.6143. The upper bound of the government's preferred trading range (4.40-4.60) is eyed, a move into that band would draw technical interest to the 20-EMA at 4.6022. Bulls look for gains towards Sep 12 high/round figure/61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2023 downleg at 4.6971/4.7000/4.7072.

• The key near-term risk for the zloty is provided by tomorrow's NBP rate decision, with EUR/PLN overnight implied volatility creeping higher today. Most of the economists polled by Bloomberg expect the NBP to cut rates by 25bp but there is considerable diversity in sell-side analyst calls. Heightened uncertainty around the decision may translate into increased volatility in Polish financial markets.
• POLGB yields are slightly lower across the curve this morning, with FRAs little changed on the day. Equity benchmark WIG20 printed fresh cyclical lows, then reversed losses and last sits ~0.4% higher on the day.