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PLN: Zloty Treads Water As Focus Turns To NBP

PLN
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

EUR/PLN trades flat at 4.2277, stabilising after yesterday's upswing. US trade policy may continue to provide a source of recurrent short-term volatility via its impact on global risk sentiment but restrictive NBP monetary policy continues to provide longer-term support to the PLN. As the year progresses, any fresh developments on a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire may also set the tone for the zloty and its regional peers.

  • From a technical perspective, the psychologically significant 4.20 figure continues to provide a line in the sand on the downside. The level came under repeated attacks around the turn of the month but EUR/PLN failed to close below there despite multiple attempts. The rate has since unwound slightly oversold conditions and bulls now look for a firmer rebound through the 4.25 mark and towards the 50-EMA, which kicks in at 4.2568.
  • The National Bank of Poland (NBP) will announce its rate decision tomorrow. Consensus is unanimous in expecting a well-telegraphed on-hold decision, with majority of Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members signalling that rate cuts could be considered no earlier than in 2H25. On the other hand, easing seems to be on the table later this year despite hawkish messaging from Governor Adam Glapinski. As a reminder, the Governor will hold his regular press conference a day after the publication of the MPC's rate decision and statement.
  • POLGB yields have mostly ticked higher, curve runs steeper.
  • The WIG20 Index has inched higher this morning.
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EUR/PLN trades flat at 4.2277, stabilising after yesterday's upswing. US trade policy may continue to provide a source of recurrent short-term volatility via its impact on global risk sentiment but restrictive NBP monetary policy continues to provide longer-term support to the PLN. As the year progresses, any fresh developments on a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire may also set the tone for the zloty and its regional peers.

  • From a technical perspective, the psychologically significant 4.20 figure continues to provide a line in the sand on the downside. The level came under repeated attacks around the turn of the month but EUR/PLN failed to close below there despite multiple attempts. The rate has since unwound slightly oversold conditions and bulls now look for a firmer rebound through the 4.25 mark and towards the 50-EMA, which kicks in at 4.2568.
  • The National Bank of Poland (NBP) will announce its rate decision tomorrow. Consensus is unanimous in expecting a well-telegraphed on-hold decision, with majority of Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members signalling that rate cuts could be considered no earlier than in 2H25. On the other hand, easing seems to be on the table later this year despite hawkish messaging from Governor Adam Glapinski. As a reminder, the Governor will hold his regular press conference a day after the publication of the MPC's rate decision and statement.
  • POLGB yields have mostly ticked higher, curve runs steeper.
  • The WIG20 Index has inched higher this morning.