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Zloty Underperforms CE3 Peers Despite Supportive External Conditions

PLN
PLN is underperforming its CE3 peers, despite the roll-off in US tsy yields and bounce in equities supportive of wider EM FX. At typing, EURPLN is up 0.20% close to the 4.4700 mark - a handle which closely matches last week’s highs. Domestic news flow has been light today with no obvious driver behind the underperformance of the zloty.
  • The local calendar is light for the remainder of the week. Unemployment rate data provides the highlight tomorrow (Est: 5.0%). As such, global themes and international markets will likely continue to dictate play, although markets remain on watch for headlines concerning EU funding, after reports last week suggested election victor Tusk is to head to Brussels to conduct high-level talks with EU leaders on funding. No specific timings have been disclosed.
  • Technically, short-term gains are considered corrective and are allowing the oversold condition to unwind. The recent break below the 4.5000 handle signals scope for an extension towards 4.3986, the Jul 31 low and the next major support. Upside resistance is marked further out at 4.5359, the 50-day EMA.
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