Zloty Volatility Subsides After NBP Presser & US NFP

EUR/PLN oscillates around unchanged levels, with little in the way of notable fresh catalysts. Any gains for the zloty stemming from a hawkish NBP presser last week were neutralised by the US NFP-inspired rout in EM FX on Friday. When this is being typed, EUR/PLN trades at 4.3161 and bulls look for a resumption of gains towards 4.3248, the 61.8% retracement of the Apr 16 - May 28 bear leg, as well as the 76.4% retracement point at 4.3441. On the flip side, bears look for losses towards Jun 4 low of 4.2715 and the psychologically significant 4.25 area.

• The government will today discuss macroeconomic assumptions for the 2025 budget, which are expected to be in line with the main parameters of the Multi-Year Financial Plan (MYFP) unveiled earlier this year. Separately, the authorities will also discuss border security measures amid a flare-up in tensions surrounding migrant flows reportedly funnelled towards the Polish border by Russia and Belarus.
• POLGB yields sit higher (although off intraday highs), curve runs a tad steeper; FRAs have also crept higher at the start to the week. The WIG20 Index is on the back foot, testing support from its 100-DMA.