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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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ECB VP worried about possible threats to financial stability.
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Alexandre Tombini, Chief Representative of the BIS, speaks in MNI EM Connect event.
MNI INTERVIEW: US Job Market Slowdown Reflects Slowing Growth
POLITICAL RISK: Japan DPP Leader Pushes Back On Partial Coalition With LDP
Headlines from DPP leader Tamaki have crossed the wires. Notably the leader has stated that the DPP won't join the LDP coalition, stating that they are unsure of what a partial coalition would mean (per BBG). This followed earlier headlines from onshore news wire Yomiuri that PM Ishiba would reach out to the DPP to form a partial coalition. Tamaki added they haven't heard from the LDP about a partial coalition.
- Other comments from the DPP leader noted though they will not oppose everything as this would not be for the good of the nation.
- Tamaki also stated the DPP is exchanging information with the LDP, CDP and Ishin as well (per BBG).
US: Kamala Harris Rally In Michigan Underway Shortly
Vice President Kamala Harris is shortly due to hold a rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan. LIVESTREAM.
- The rally comes after today Harris touted investments in state made by the Biden administration from the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, including a campaign stop at a polysilicon semiconductor manufacturing facility in Saginaw that is set to receive USD$325 million in CHIPS funding. In September, Harris unveiled a USD$100 billionmanufacturing agenda in neighbouring Pennsylvania.
- Historically, Michigan is consider the bluest of the three Blue Wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisonsin) but polling this cycle shows a toss-up race leaning slightly towards Harris.
- There has been a lot of scutiny over the vote of the sizable Arab-American population in the state, with reports suggesting Harris could lose a large portion of the vote in protest of the Biden's aministration's handling of the Middle East crisis.
- Nate Silver notes that Arab Americans represent, "only around 2 percent of the Michigan electorate. A 25-point swing in the Arab American vote toward Trump would produce a net shift of about 0.5 points to him in Michigan’s topline numbers. That’s a problem for Harris, but it’s probably not her biggest problem given that Michigan typically provides a bit more cushion to Democrats than the other swing states."
Source: New York Times
US: Harris Hopes For Favourable Economic Data To Boost Economic Arguement
Senior Democrats are hopeful that three economic data releases this week on GDP, inflation, and jobs can offer a final argument for Harris to sway voters on the economy.
- Axios notes: “On Wednesday, new GDP data for the third quarter will show the economy expanded at a robust 3%, according to the consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.Then Thursday, a closely watched inflation measure is likely to show the lowest rate of price increases since early 2021. On Friday, the jobs report should show the lowest pre-election unemployment rate in 24 years — 4.1% in October, according to forecasters.”
- USA Today notes: “Gas prices and mortgage rates are down. Inflation-adjusted incomes are up. And consumer confidence is tepid but well above the threshold that historically has signaled a recession. In past presidential races, those kinds of economic vital signs have reliably foreshadowed victory for the incumbent party in the White House. “
- USA Today notes that “Moody’s Analytics' final election computer model says there’s a 55.5% chance Harris will narrowly win based largely on those positive indicators.”
- Moody’s economist Justin Begley saidthe firm’s election model gives Harris a slight majority of the vote in enough of the seven swing states to nudge her to an Electoral College victory: “That’s a tailwind for Harris. Perceptions of the economy aren’t outweighing the hard data in our model.”
US: Democrats See Pathway To Retaining Senate Through Texas
A new survey of the Texas Senate race, conducted by Democrat candidate Rep Colin Allred (D-TX), shows a tied race with Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX). A recent NYT/Siena poll shows Cruz ahead, 50-46. Another poll from Emerson College last week, had Cruz ahead by one point.
- An Allred campaign memo reads: “The momentum in the Texas Senate race is with Colin Allred, but to finish the job he will need the resources to appeal to a broad base of supporters across Texas.”
- If Senator Jon Tester (D-MO) loses in Montana, as polls indicate, then control of the Senate may come down to Texas, a wildcard race in Nebraska, and control of the presidency.
- Spencer Kimball at Emerson College Polling said on the Montana race: "Tester’s support among Montana voters faces a test as Trump appears poised to exceed his 2020 margin of 16.4 percentage points in the state.”
- On that Nebraska race: Independent Dan Osborn is within two points of GOP Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) among likely Nebraska voters, 48 percent to 46 percent, per NYT/Siena.
- The polling suggests that there are feasible pathways to Democrats retaining the Senate, but it likely hinges on a victory by Vice President Harris and a near-perfect performance by Democrat candidates in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Mexico, and Michigan. A tall order reflected in betting markets showing a nearly 85% implied probability that Republicans flip the chamber.
Figure 1: Montana Senate Race
Source: Emerson College Polling
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.