Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is shortly due to deliver a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, warning that former President Donald Trump’s economic plan would fuel inflation and harm business. LIVESTREAM 

• Yellen will argue that the Biden administration’s ‘modern supply-side economics’ strategy has created the conditions for, “record small business growth and a historic boom in factory construction…”
• Without mentioning Trump by name, Yellen will say: “Calls for walling America off with high tariffs on friends and competitors alike or by treating even our closest allies as transactional partners are deeply misguided. Sweeping, untargeted tariffs would raise prices for American families and make our businesses less competitive.”
• Yellen will also argue that Trump’s isolationist stance will prevent the US from advancing economic and security interests, “such as opposing Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine,” and confronting China’s industrial overcapacity.
• The New York Times notes: “Trump imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign products during his presidency, but his plans if he is re-elected would dwarf those moves."
• Vice President Kamala Harris' tariff plan is expected to track closely with Biden’s ‘high fence: small yard’ strategy that applies punitive tariffs on sectors and technologies associated with national security. The White House has paired its narrower tariff strategy with a push to ‘nearshore’ critical industries to allied countries, a response to supply chain shocks that accompanied the COVID-19 pandemic and decoupling the US economy from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.  

Vice President Kamala Harris is shortly due to deliver remarks at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, her sixth trip to the Blue Wall battleground state that has shown signs of trending towards former President Donald Trump in recent weeks. LIVESTREAM

• Yesterday, Harris made her first Fox News appearance of the campaign, joining anchor Brett Baier for a combative interview that the Harris camp hopes will broaden her appeal with Trump sceptic Republicans and independents who make up a sizeable portion of the Wisconsin electorate.
• At a separate event in Philadelphia yesterday, Harris pitched a case to moderate Republicans that Trump represents a threat to US democracy, a regular Biden refrain that Harris abandoned in favour of a more positive message for much of her campaign: "What is at stake in this race are the Democratic ideals that our founders and generations of Americans before us have fought for... that we must put country before party."
• During the Fox interview, Harris sought to remedy a recent campaign gaff when she wouldn’t have done anything differently to Biden. She told Baier: "My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden's presidency…"

Figure 1: Wisconsin Presidential Election Polling Average Over Time

Source: 538

Reuters carrying comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following confirmation of the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. 

• Netanyahu: "To the Hamas terrorists I say - your leaders are running away and they will be eliminated. I call on everyone who holds our hostages: whoever lays down his arms and returns our hostages - we will allow him to leave and live. Whoever harms our hostages - there will be blood on his head and we will hold him accountable. The return of our hostages is an opportunity to achieve all our goals and it brings the end of the war closer," per Axios.
• Netanyahu said, addressing the people of Gaza: "...evil has been delivered a blow but our task is not complete... we will continue full force until our hostages return."
• Addressing the people of Gaza, Netanyahu said: "Sinwar has ruined your lives... Hamas will not rule Gaza, this is an opportunity for Gaza's people to free themselves from its tyranny."
• Netanyahu adds that, "the war is still not over," but in, "Gaza, Beirut and the Middle East, light is prevailing over darkness... region now has opportunity to stop 'axis of evil' and bring peace and prosperity to Middle East."

YouGov has released its second multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) model for the presidential election, showing that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge over former President Donald Trump - largely in line with polling but slightly more favourable to Harris in the northern battlegrounds. 

• YouGov notes: "The second release of our model estimating 2024 presidential-election votes in every state, based upon nearly 100,000 recent interviews of registered voters, shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% just three weeks before the election. The October 16 update shows Harris with 250 electoral votes, Trump with 219, and 69 electoral votes as tossups." This is a change from the September 10 release, which showed Harris with 256 votes, Trump with 235, and 47 electoral votes as tossups."
• YouGov adds: "270 votes are needed to be elected and, according to our model, the outcome will be determined by races that we currently rate as tossups: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd District. All of these contests are within the margin of error and could go either way."
• The model diverges slightly from polling by showing Harris with a stronger lead in Wisconsin (+4) and Trump with a weaker lead in Texas (+4). The model also suggests that Wisconsin and Michigan is leaning sufficiently towards Harris to warrant not being described as 'toss-ups'. 

Figure 1: YouGov MRP Electoral College Model

Source: YouGov