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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
LATEST INSIGHT 
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Data tilts market to a 25bp cut before media reports suggest a much closer call
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Former Fed officials discuss expectations for the FOMC's September economic projections.
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Political Risk
Biden Unlikely To Block US Steel Acquisition Before Election
The Washington Post reports that US President Joe Biden, “will not imminently move to block Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel amid mounting concerns over the political and economic consequences of nixing the deal.”
- President Biden, as well as both presidential nominees - Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump -, are opposed to Nippon Steel's proposed USD$14.9 takeover, with the White House citing national security concerns.
- The Post reports: "White House officials have now indicated that such a decision is unlikely in the short term and may not be made until after the 2024 presidential election, according to [sources]... The president remains opposed to the deal, officials said. No announcement was ever scheduled. But the pace of internal deliberations has slowed.”
- Bloomberg reports that Nippon Steel sent a letter to President Biden on September 8, but a spokesperson from the company declined to disclose the contents of the letter, or whether there was a response.
- Bloomberg: "The Japanese company dispatched its executive vice president to the US this week, although the United Steelworkers union has said it would not be bullied into accepting it."
Biden Envoy Hochstein To Visit Israel On Monday To Calm Tensions
US President Joe Biden's senior Middle East envoy, Amos Hochstein, will make another trip to Israel on Monday in a bid to calm rising tension with Iran-backed militant group, Hezbollah, on the Israel-Lebanon border.
- White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby told reporters a short time ago that Hochstein's trip is part of the administration’s efforts to prevent escalation and expand the conflict: “We are trying to prevent the opening of a second front in northern Israel.”
- Barak Ravid at Axios reports that, "US officials say they are concerned by the escalating rhetoric from the IDF about going to war with Lebanon."
- Middle East Monitor reports: "Israeli analysts have voiced concerns that the US is working to prevent Israel from launching a large-scale military operation in Lebanon ahead of the US presidential elections in November."
- Amos Harel, a military affairs analyst at Haaretz, noted that “the stalemate in the negotiations for a ceasefire deal in Gaza is again raising the level of danger in northern Israel... Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, wanted to see whether progress would be made in the talks between Israel and Hamas. But in the absence of any change in the status of the negotiations, Hezbollah is again expanding the targets at which it fires rockets and drones.”
MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Post-Debate Swing?
- Vice President Kamala Harris was widely judged to have won the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump. She controlled the tone of the debate and effectively baited Trump into defensive responses that whiffed on Harris’ political vulnerabilities.
- A New York Times/Siena College survey released before the debate exposed several potential weaknesses in Harris' campaign: Only 40% of voters view her as the candidate of change, voters don’t buy her as a centrist, and voters want to hear more about her and her policies.
- If the best metric for measuring Harris’ debate performance is how successfully she addressed those weaknesses, she may not have done enough to move the needle.
- High-quality polls based on rigorous fieldwork will be released by Sunday, providing a clearer picture of how Harris’ debate win has influenced the race.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball opined on the perennial issue of pollsters underestimating Trump's support: “There are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.”
- The Montana Senate race appears to be drifting away from Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) and with it, Democrats' chances of retaining the upper chamber.
- Election forecast models continue to diverge slightly, with 538, DDHQ, and the Economist all showing a toss-up race that leans marginally towards Harris, and Nate Silver's model bullish on Trump.
- Betting markets made two major moves this week, first a bullish pivot on Trump, and then a reversal following Harris’ debate win.
- Inside: A round-up of polling, key election news, and prediction market data.
Full article: US Elections Weekly
MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Post-Debate Swing?
Weekly snapshot of the US elections.
Executive Summary:
- Vice President Kamala Harris was widely judged to have won the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump. She controlled the tone of the debate and effectively baited Trump into defensive responses that whiffed on Harris’ political vulnerabilities.
- A New York Times/Siena College survey released before the debate exposed several potential weaknesses in Harris' campaign: Only 40% of voters view her as the candidate of change, voters don’t buy her as a centrist, and voters want to hear more about her and her policies.
- If the best metric for measuring Harris’ debate performance is how successfully she addressed those weaknesses, she may not have done enough to move the needle.
- High-quality polls based on rigorous fieldwork will be released by Sunday, providing a clearer picture of how Harris’ debate win has influenced the race.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball opined on the perennial issue of pollsters underestimating Trump's support: “There are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.”
- The Montana Senate race appears to be drifting away from Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) and with it, Democrats' chances of retaining the upper chamber.
- Election forecast models continue to diverge slightly, with 538, DDHQ, and the Economist all showing a toss-up race that leans marginally towards Harris, and Nate Silver's model bullish on Trump.
- Betting markets made two major moves this week, first a bullish pivot on Trump, and then a reversal following Harris’ debate win.
- Inside: A round-up of polling, key election news, and prediction market data.
Please find the full article attached below:
Sep 13, 2024 04:07 PM GMT
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.