Bonds & Currency News

MNI BCB Preview - Dec 2021: Sticking To The Script

In line with the guidance from the October meeting statement, the Copom will likely raise the Selic Rate by a further 150bp this week, to 9.25%.

MARKET NEWS TOP STORIES

MNI:Fed To Replace Transitory With Conditional Price Outlook

FOMC statement next week will revamp the characterization of inflation.

MNI INSIGHT:BOE Meeting Live To Consider Hike Despite Omicron

Receding investor bets on a December hike by the BOE have come despite no change in guidance that higher interest rates are coming.

Political Risk

Latest Leger Poll Shows Liberals Retain Wide Lead Over Conservatives

The latest federal election opinion poll from Leger shows Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party maintaining a wide lead over the centre-right Conservatives. While the gap has narrowed a little since the poll carried out in November, it marks a 3% increase for the Liberals since the September election and a 5% decrease for the Conservatives in the same timespan.

Federal Polling: LPC: 36% (+1), CPC: 29% (+3), NDP: 19% (-3), BQ: 7% (-1), PPC: 5% (-), GPC: 3% (+1). Leger / December 5, 2021 / n=1319 / Online. (% Change With 7 Nov)
While the polling looks relatively good for Trudeau and his party, the PM remains in a somewhat tricky position politically. The failure to win an overall majority in the September election is viewed by many in the Liberal Party as a black mark against Trudeau's leadership. The PM has fought three general elections, and has failed to garner a majority in either of the last two contests.
While the prospect of a leadership challenge is unlikely any time soon, the minority gov't remains vulnerable to votes of no confidence in the Commons. Should polling turn significantly against the Liberals in the future it could spur its MPs into contemplating a change of leadership.

CANADA

Labour Take Lead In Survation Poll As Gov'ts Poor Headlines Continue

The latest opinion poll from outlet Survation shows the opposition centre-left Labour Party taking a three point lead over Prime Minister Boris Johnson's centre-right Conservative Party. This is the largest Labour lead in a Survation poll since July 2019, when former Prime Minister Theresa May had announced her intention to resign but before Boris Johnson took her place as Conservative leader.

Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 39% (+2), Conservative: 36% (-1), Lib Dem: 9% (-1), SNP: 5% (=), Green: 3% (-1), ReformUK: 3% (-1). Via @Survation, 30 Nov - 1 Dec. Changes w/ 11-15 Nov.
The governments run of poor headlines continues into another week, with furore surrounding an alleged Downing St. Christmas party held in 2020 despite lockdown restrictions and ongoing concern about the spread of the Omicron variant hitting public support.
The Conservatives held the seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup in last week's by-election (albeit with a narrower majority), but face a much tougher test in the North Shropshire by-election on 16 Dec. A loss there would pile even greater pressure on PM Johnson at a time when patience among backbench MPs is wearing thin.

Fin Min Le Maire: Gov't Investigating Extending Furlough Beyond 31 Dec

Wires and social media carrying comments from French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire claiming that the Macron administration is investigating whether the country's COVID-19 furlough scheme could or should be extended beyond year-end.

The comment comes in stark contrast to those made by Le Maire in September, when asked about President Macron's comments about continuing support 'whatever the cost', Le Maire replied, “The bill for ‘whatever the cost’ stands at EUR80 billion in subsidies, and EUR160 billion in loans,”
It should of course be noted that French politics is swiftly gearing up for next year's presidential election, with the first round taking place on 10 April. The extension of the furlough scheme is unlikely to do Macron's approval ratings any harm as the vote approaches.

FRANCE

Gov't To Boycott Beijing Winter Olympics, Cites COVID-19

New Zealand's Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson has announced that it will be joining the United States in a diplomatic boycott of the Winter Olympic Games taking place in Beijing in Feburary 2022. However, unlike the US which is not sending any diplomatic representatives to the games due to what WH Press Sec Jen Psaki stated is the "ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and other human rights abuses," the New Zealand gov't is citing the COVID-19 pandemic as the reason for not sending any politicians to the games.

New Zealand's gov't has come into some criticism from politicians from other 'Five Eyes' intelligence network partners for its percieved lack of robustness in standing up to Beijing. While this move is predicated on the spread of the coronavirus, the fact that the announcement has come before decsions from stauncher critics of China such as Australia and the UK will not go unnoticed in Beijing or Washington, D.C.

NEW ZEALAND

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