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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight – June 2024
The Eurozone May flash inflation round saw services HICP more than reverse April’s progress, printing at 4.1% Y/Y.
July 02, 2024 19:36 GMT
LATEST INSIGHT 
MNI FOMC Minutes Preview – June 2024
The June Fed meeting minutes could provide insight on the Committee's take on the latest inflation data.
MNI INTERVIEW: Dec Fed Cut Doubtful If Trump Wins -Obstfeld
Former IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld discusses how Fed policy would shift under a second Trump term.
MNI BRIEF: Powell - Fed Wants More Confidence On Disinflation
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the ECB's Sintra conference.
U.S. Macro Signal - July 2024: Domestic Engine Humming A Little Less Strongly
MNI's inaugural U.S. Macro Signal offers an in-depth look at the latest economic trends and what they mean looking ahead
July 02, 2024 13:18 GMT
Political Risk
First Sitting Democrat Lawmaker Calls On Biden To Withdraw
Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) has become the first sitting Democratic Party lawmaker to openly call for President Biden to withdraw from the presidential race, following his weak debate performance.
- Doggett said in a statement: "I had hoped that the debate would provide some momentum to [improve Biden's underperformance]. It did not. Instead of reassuring voters, the President failed to effectively defend his many accomplishments and expose Trump's many lies.
- "Too much is at stake to risk a Trump victory - too great a risk to assume that what could not be turned around in a year, what was not turned around in the debate, can be turned around now.
- "I represent the heart of a congressional district once represented by Lyndon Johnson. Under very different circumstances, he made the painful decision to withdraw. President Biden should do the same....I am hopeful that he will make the painful and difficult decision to withdraw. I respectfully call on him to do so.”
- Doggett's statement comes shortly after an MSNBC interview by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) in which she appeared to hint that Biden should withdraw. Until now, calls for Biden's withdrawal have remained confined to the media and former officials. Doggett's statement could precipitate a wave of similar calls, which would be far more difficult for the White House to ignore.
- We noteda short time ago that Biden is set to meet with Democratic Party governors tomorrow, who likely have the most weight to influence Biden's decision.
President Biden To Deliver Remarks On 'Extreme Weather' Shortly
US President Joe Biden is shortly due to deliver remarks on extreme weather at the Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. Livestream
- The White House noted in a fact sheet outlining new measures: "In addition to posing direct threats to lives and livelihoods, major weather events – which are becoming increasingly extreme due to the climate crisis – have had significant economic impacts: last year’s record 28 individual billion-dollar extreme weather and climate disasters caused more than $90 billion in aggregate damage."
- The measures, including, "nearly USD$1 billion dollars in awards for 656 projects across the country to help communities protect against disasters and natural hazards, including extreme heat, storms, and flooding," can be found in full here.
- Biden's remarks will also be closely scrutinised for any additional signs of the cognitive issues Biden experienced during the first presidential debate last Thursday.
Biden To Meet With Democratic Party Governors Tomorrow
President Biden will meet with Democratic Party governors tomorrow. The meeting could offer a firmer indication of Biden's strategy in light of his underwhelming debate performance on Thursday.
- Calls from the liberal media persist for Biden to step aside and allow an open Democratic Party Convention in August to select a new nominee. As Biden comprehensively won the Democratic Party primaries, he would have to voluntarily step aside to release delegates at the convention. The baseline view is that this remains unlikely, with the Biden camp committed to his re-election campaign. CBS notes the meeting is designed to "shore up support."
- Names floated as potential Biden replacements include Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD), Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL), and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY).
- Of those, Whitmer appears the logical choice, despite buzz around Newsom. She has won re-election in a Midwest state, crucial as the Rust Belt is the primary pathway for Democrats to retain the White House. Politico reported yesterday that Whitmer warned the Biden campaign that Michigan, "in the wake of the debate, was no longer winnable for Biden."
- Notably, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told MSNBC today: "I think it's a legitimate question to say is this an episode or is this a condition... It's going to be up to Joe Biden to do what he thinks... I'm not a doctor, I can't say what happens 3,4 years down the road..."
- Her comments could be interpreted as a subtle message for Biden to step aside, as she did in 2022.
Manhattan Prosecutors Agree w/Trump On Postponing Hush Money Sentencing
Manhattan prosecutors have issued a statement saying they will not oppose former President Donald Trump's request to postpone his criminal sentencing in light of yesterday's Supreme Court's ruling on presidential immunity.
- The New York Times notes: "It is up to the judge to determine whether to postpone the sentencing, though with both sides in agreement, it seems likely he would do so."
- Trump is due to be sentenced on July 11 after being found guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to a hush money payment to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election campaign.
- Although the Supreme Court ruling appears unrelated to the hush money case, considering it prosecuted crimes committed during the 2016 presidential campaign, the SCOTUS ruling offers an opaque delineation between "official acts" which are covered by immunity, and "unofficial acts" for which a president could incur criminal charges. Trump's legal team argues that some of the evidence presented in the case relates to Trump's time in office and is therefore now inadmissible
- Prosecutors wrote: “Although we believe defendant’s arguments to be without merit, we do not oppose his request for leave to file and his putative request to adjourn sentencing pending determination of his motion.”
- NYT notes: "Mr. Trump’s lawyers proposed filing their court papers on July 10, and the district attorney’s office said it would respond two weeks later."
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Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.