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MNI BCB WATCH: Hawkish Copom Tone Hints At More 50BP Hikes

The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) unanimously decided to raise its Selic rate by 50 basis points, to 11.25%.

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MNI BCRP Preview - Nov'24: Further Easing, But Timing Unclear

Analysts suggest the outcome of the November meeting will be a close call, with a narrow majority expecting a 25bp cut.

Political Risk

MNI POLITICAL RISK-US Election: Immediate Analyst Views

Sell-side outlines key views following Trump's return to the presidency

With Donald Trump set to return to the White House in January 2025, there will be a flurry of research and analysis in the coming days and weeks on what a second Trump presidency could look like in terms of political, economic, security, and market impacts across the globe. With that in mind, below we highlight some initial analyst views in the immediate aftermath of the election. 

Full article PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-USElectionImmediateAnalystViews.pdf

Election Day Schedules For Harris & Trump Campaigns

With polls opening across the United States, the presidential campaigns of VP Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in their last few hours of operation.

  • On the Republican side of the campaign, Trump is spending election day in Palm Beach, Florida, the site of his Mar-a-Lago Club. He will then hold an election night watch party at Palm Beach County Convention Center. His running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) has no public schedule at present.
  • On the Democratic side, Harris is set to participate in radio interviews in all seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) before holding a watch party at Howard University in Washington, D.C., Her vice-presidential running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, holds a final speaking engagement in Harrisburg, PA at 1130ET/1630GMT before travelling to D.C., for the Howard U watch party.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-US Election Viewing Guide-UPDATE

How to watch the election results come in, with key timings and counties to look out for.

In this article, we provide an estimated timetable of events for the US general election taking place on Tuesday 5 November as ballots are counted. As well as a guide of what times various states may call their results, we also provide analysis on key counties to watch in swing states that are likely to give the best indication as to the direction the presidency is heading in. 

All timings in this article are subject to change and given the increased amount of mail-in and early voting in recent election cycles, the tabulation process may take longer. Moreover, the heightened political tensions around the legitimacy of the ballot in certain states means election calls may be more prone to challenges, further exacerbating the wait. As such, there is the possibility that at the end of the counting of ballots, it is still not clear which candidate has won the presidency or which party is in control of the Congress.

Editor's note: This is an updated version of the original Viewing Guide published on 4 Nov. Includes previously omitted information on the Georgia election count. 

Full article PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-USElectionViewingGuide.pdf

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-US Election Viewing Guide

How to watch the election results come in, with key timings and counties to look out for.

In this article, we provide an estimated timetable of events for the US general election taking place on Tuesday 5 November as ballots are counted. As well as a guide of what times various states may call their results, we also provide analysis on key counties to watch in swing states that are likely to give the best indication as to the direction the presidency is heading in. 

All timings in this article are subject to change and given the increased amount of mail-in and early voting in recent election cycles, the tabulation process may take longer. Moreover, the heightened political tensions around the legitimacy of the ballot in certain states means election calls may be more prone to challenges, further exacerbating the wait. As such, there is the possibility that at the end of the counting of ballots, it is still not clear which candidate has won the presidency or which party is in control of the Congress.

Full article PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-USElectionViewingGuide.pdf

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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

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