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MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Eyes Expanded Commerce Dept

Daily round-up of news from the US.

Executive summary:

  • US President-elect Donald Trump will tap the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, to serve as his Commerce Secretary, noting that Lutnick "will lead our Tariff and Trade agenda, with additional direct responsibility for the Office of the United States Trade Representative.”
  • Trump’s comments suggest that he envisages a broader portfolio for Commerce that may include folding the USTR into the department, a move former President Barack Obama tried unsuccessfully in 2012.
  • Betting markets continue to whipsaw on news snippets without alighting on a clear favourite for Trump's Treasury Secretary nominee. Frontrunners include Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN), who spent the week with Trump at Mar-a-Lago and Marc Rowan and Kevin Warsh, who are both set for vetting meetings this week.
  • The House Republican conference held a closed-door meeting yesterday to discuss legislative priorities for the first 100 days of the Trump administration, including a package to be passed under budget reconciliation – a procedural tool to move tax and spending legislation without a Senate supermajority.
  • Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo intends to allocate all the USD$50 billion of funding from the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act before Trump takes office.
  • US officials downplayed President Vladimir Putin's adjustment to Russia's nuclear doctrine.
  • The US officially recognised opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia as Venezuela’s president-elect
  • Poll of the Day:Ukrainians are souring on US leadership. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief

MNI POLITICAL RISK - Warsh Emerges As Treasury Sec Favourite

Daily round-up of news from the US.

Executive summary:

  • President-elect Donald Trump’s robust support of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) for Attorney General could be seen as a proxy battle with Senate Republicans ahead of a challenging confirmation period. 
  • Prediction markets have whipsawed on speculation over Trump’s Treasury Secretary nominee, with early favourites Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick falling out of favour amid acrimonious internal discussions.
  • The Senate Judiciary Committee will meet today for an antitrust hearing on “breaking the Visa-Mastercard duopoly."
  • News outlets published a flurry of headlines yesterday claiming Trump had confirmed his intention to declare a national emergency and use military assets to deport millions of undocumented migrants. 
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) appears to be the only Congressional leader in favour of a short-term government funding extension.
  • The White House has urged Congress to approve roughly USD$100 billion for disaster relief. 
  • House Democrats will hold leadership elections today, with little change expected to the leadership team.
  • President Biden’s Middle East Envoy has arrived in Lebanon for another round of talks designed to end hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.
  • There has been an uptick in tensions between Russia and the West after Ukraine used US-supplied long-range missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time since Biden relaxed restrictions on their use.
  • Poll of the Day:Ukrainians are increasingly likely to want a negotiated end to the war with Russia as soon as possible. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief

MNI POLITICAL RISK- Trump Nominates Exec Branch At Record Pace

Daily round-up of news from the US.

Executive summary:

  • US President-elect Donald Trump is nominating executive branch appointments at a faster clip than previous incoming administrations but continues to vacillate on his nominee for Treasury Secretary. Amid discord within his inner circle, Trump will meet with top Treasury candidates - including early favourites Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick - and alternatives Robert Lighthizer, Marc Rowan, Senator Bill Haggerty (R-TN), and Kevin Warsh at Mar-a-Lago this week.
  • Trump has tapped Chris Wright, the chief executive of fracking company Liberty Energy, as his Energy Secretary. Wright, along with ‘energy czar’ Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), will lead an energy agenda focused on ratcheting up fossil fuel production and unwinding regulations put in place by the Biden administration. 
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is leaning towards a short-term Continuing Resolution to punt government funding until after Trump is inaugurated and Republicans control both chambers of Congress. A short-term measure would give the GOP more input over FY2025 spending bills but could also eat up Congressional bandwidth during a critical period when Trump intends to pursue his ‘100-day’ agenda.
  • President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a "candid" and "constructive" discussion on the margins of the APEC Summit in Peru.
  • Biden announced a major pivot in Ukraine policy, allowing Kyiv to use US-supplied long-range weapons to strike targets within the Russian Federation.
  • Poll of the Day: Employee life evaluation has hit a record low.

Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - Week Ahead 18-24 November

G20 leaders meet in Rio; Zelenskyy addresses EU Parl't on 1,000th day of Russian invasion; COP29 concludes in Baku

(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change.

Monday 18 November:

  • G20: The annual G20 leaders’ summit gets underway in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The 18 November sessions focus on the topics of ‘combating hunger and poverty’ and ‘reform of global governance institutions’. As is often the case with such international summits, a significant amount of focus will be on bilateral sideline meetings between senior global leaders. Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to hold one-on-one talks with UK PM Sir Keir Starmer and Australian PM Anthony Albanese, among others, on 18 November.
Full article PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-WeekAhead18-24Nov.pdf

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