Henry Hub front month is ticking up today, supported by higher LNG feedgas flows, higher domestic demand, and slightly lower production levels.

• US Natgas NOV 24 up 0.4% at 2.5$/mmbtu
• US Natgas APR 25 up 1% at 2.79$/mmbtu
• Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated at 72.15bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
• Lower 48 temperatures below normal this week are expected to warm back above normal into the weekend.
• US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is slightly higher on the day to 13.41bcf/d today, BNEF shows.
• US domestic natural gas production was down slightly on the day yesterday at 101.9bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
• Italy’s Edison was last week told by Venture Global that first contract cargoes from its Calcasieu Pass LNG, Louisiana export facility would not be available until April 2025 at the earliest.
• LNG floating storage has fallen back below levels seen this time last year but remains above normal ahead of the upcoming winter heating season.
• Global LNG demand fell 5% in the week to Oct. 13 to 7.37m mt with a decline in Southern Asia, Europe and the Americas only partly offset by a rebound in the JKCT region imports, BNEF said.
• EU ministers met on Tuesday morning to discuss the regions rising LNG imports from Russia and Ukrainian energy storage ahead of winter.
• Russian gas deliveries to the EU have been significantly higher than long-term contracts should see delivered, the bloc’s energy commissioner told a news conference said Oct. 15.
• Gas supplies from Libya’s Mellitah complex to Italy will be materially reduced and could gradually decline to zero during planned maintenance, according to ENI.
• The increasing supply of renewables, coupled with robust underground storage, has reduced the demand for natural gas and LNG in Spain, Platts said.

Republican Presidential candidate Trump speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago sounds noncommittal on whether he would seek to terminate the term of Fed Chair Powell, either early (if that's even possible) or at the end of his term in May 2026. In general though it sounds like - if elected next month - he would adopt a similar approach as in his first term, by commenting publicly on Fed policy without unduly pressuring FOMC officials.

• Asked whether he would seek to remove or demote Powell: "I think it's the greatest job in government. You show up to the office once a month, and you say, 'let's see', flip a coin. And everybody talks about you like you're a god. The guy used to walk into my office and  he was like, begging...he was fine." "I did [consider terminating him in my previous term] because he was keeping the rates too high. And I was right...in fact he actually dropped them too much when I did this."
• On whether he would do a better job as Fed Chair: "I think I'm better than he would be. I think I'm better than most people would be in that position. I have the right to say I think you should go up or down a little bit...I don't think I should be allowed to order it. But I think I should have the right to make comments as to whether rates should go up or down."

The presidential race continues to get tighter, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris effectively tied across all seven key swing states.   

• Nate Cohen at the New York Times writes: “It’s hard to think of any election when so many critical states were so close in the polls at this stage,” noting that although the 2000 and 2004 elections were close, “There has never been an election with so many polls showing such a close race.”
• Cohen adds: “In such a close race, even the slightest movement in the polls takes on outsize significance. For that same reason, even a modest error in the polls could yield a very different result. Either candidate could win decisively.”

Figure 1: Swing State Polling Averages 

Figure 2: Likely Results in the Event of a Polling Miss 

Source: New York Times

PM Giorgia Meloni has confirmed that she expects to visit Lebanon on Friday 18 Oct. It comes after Italian troops that form part of the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNFIL) came under fire during the course of Israel's military incursion into southern Lebanon. Italy has over 1,000 troops deployed as part of the peacekeeping mission. Meloni has said that a withdrawal of the UNFIL troops based on a unilateral request from Israel 'would be a grave mistake' and 'undermine the credibility of the EU'. 

• Speaking before the Senate, Meloni said that "We believe that the attitude of the Israeli forces is completely unjustified," claiming it a "blatant violation" of the UN resolution seeking to end hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.
• Italy has previously been a vocal supporter of Israel within the EU, but as Al-Monitor noted earlier in the year, this support has begun to wane. Further attacks on UNFIL peacekeepers could push Italy towards an even more vocally opposed position. Given Rome's influential position vis-a-vis EU foreign policy this could see a shift in Brussels towards a more critical tone towards Israel.