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MNI BRIEF: European Commission To Decide on Austria EDP

The European Commission to decide whether to proceed with an excessive deficit procedure against Austria.

LATEST INSIGHT

MNI: Italy Aims At NGEU Wriggle Room Over 2026 Deadline

Officials sketch out Italian plans to make sure they get as much NGEU funding as possible.

MNI UK Inflation Preview: December 2024

The median from the previews that we have read look for headline CPI to come in at 2.60%Y/Y and services CPI at 4.75%Y/Y

MNI NBP Preview - Jan 2024: Questioning Hawkish Guidance

While the NBP will almost certainly stand pat on rates this week, the Governor's rhetoric will be closely scrutinised.

MNI US CPI Preview: Still Too High For Comfort

Core CPI inflation is expected to decelerate slightly in December, with focus on housing and core goods prices.

Political Risk

US: Trump Prepares Energy Related Executive Actions To Roll Back Biden Rules

The Wall Street Journal reports that President-elect Donald Trump is preparing a set of energy-related executive orders, to sign upon his inauguration on January 20, that would unwind Biden administration rules on offshore/onshore drilling on federal lands, tailpipe emissions, and LNG exports approval. 

  • The Journal notes: “Trump’s transition team has discussed his second-term intentions with some in the oil industry, according to industry lobbyists. The plans are fluid and could change.”
  • Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said: “The American people can bank on President Trump using his executive power on day one to deliver on the promises he made to them on the campaign trail. When he takes office, President Trump will make America energy dominant again.”
  • According to the Journal, one of Trump’s first moves, “will be the creation of a national energy council overseeing U.S. oil, natural gas and electric power policy,” led by Interior Secretary nominee Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary nominee Chris Wright. 
  • Trump is also “widely expected to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate accord, as he did in his first term, potentially through an executive order in his first days in office.”
  • It is unclear if Trump has sufficient executive authority to reverse all Biden-era rules, particularly the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration. During his first term, Trump tried to reverse an Obama-era rule enacted via the same 1953 law. At that time, Trump’s bid was struck down by the courts, who determined that only Congress could unwind the rule. 

UK: Reshuffle At Treasury As Econ Sec Siddiq Resigns

The Economic Secretary to the Treasury, also known as the City Minister, Tulip Siddiq has resigned amid increasing scrutiny regarding her political and financial relations with the ousted Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, Siddiq's aunt. The gov't has confirmed that Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Pensions Emma Reynolds will take over as Econ Sec to the Treasury. Meanwhile, Torsten Bell - former chief exec of the left-leaning Resolution Foundation think tank - becomes a Parliamentary Secretary in the Treasury and Parliamentary Under Secretary of State in the Department for Work and Pensions. 

  • The resignation of Siddiq, who also served as anti-corruption minister, comes as Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves faces significant pressure amid rising gov't borrowing costs, a weakening pound, and declining fiscal headroom. Reeves' statement to the Commons earlier today gave little sign of what the gov't intends to do to try an assure markets.
  • The UK gov't is already facing a slump in opinion polling support. The latest YouGov poll has Starmer's Labour party on 26% compared to the right-wing populist Reform UK on 25%). While Siddiq was a relatively junior minister the nature of her resignation could both tarnish Starmer's attempts to portray his gov't as graft-free, and sustain the political narrative of a gov't being led by events rather than setting the agenda. 

SECURITY: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Ready To Be Concluded And Implemented, Blinken

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council, has confirmed that a Gaza ceasefire-for-hostage deal is "ready to be concluded and implemented" if Hamas accepts the conditions of the framework. 

  • Blinken says: "We believe the Palestinian Authority should invite international partners to help establish and run an interim administration in Gaza after a ceasefire deal," adding that an "interim security mission would be made up of forces from partner nations and vetted Palestinian personnel."
  • Blinken notes that the Biden administration, "will hand off plan for post-war Gaza to the Trump administration to carry forward."
  • Blinken's remarks are consistent with recent comments from US officials and Qatari mediators suggesting a ceasefire deal is closer than it has been in months, however, a final deal appears to hinge on Hamas approval, which in turn depends on how credible Hamas leadership deems a proposed Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza. As noted in earlier bullets (ISRAEL: WSJ-Israel, Hamas Finalising Gaza Deal, Could Come This Afternoon) there is some domestic uncertainty on the Israeli side, "in the form of the requirement for any deal to be approved by Israel's security cabinet and the full gov't."
  • The Jerusalem Post reported a short time ago: "No final answer was given from Hamas regarding a hostage deal, an Israeli official [said]."
  • A Qatari statement earlier today read: "We have overcome the major differences. This is the closest point we have been to a deal over the past months," 

US: Speaker Johnson Looks To Extend Debt Limit For Entirety Of Trump's Term

Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reports on X that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is looking to extend the federal debt limit for the entirety of President-elect Donald Trump's term and will discuss options at a Republican conference meeting today.

  • Sherman adds Johnson said the move would be “costly” - meaning democrats would exact a price for their votes, should the extension be moved outside of reconciliation - the mechanism by which the government can pass budget-related legislation along party lines.  
  • Johnson said he’s “agnostic” whether the debt limit rides on reconciliation or via regular appropriations where it will need Democrat support. While Republicans are in a strong position to legislate a debt ceiling hike via reconciliation, including it in a major border security/energy/tax package could leave the GOP agenda vulnerable to a rebellion from conservative deficit hawks.  
  • Johnson's comments come amid a spat with Democrats after the Speaker yesterday floated tying the debt limit to California wildfire aid. As a lengthy debt limit extension outside of reconciliation will require Democrat support. Johnson's move to attach the debt limit to a supplemental disaster aid could hasten passage of the bill but will certainly draw Democrat criticism.
  • Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) said, in response to reports of the debt limit-aid tie-up: "They need to raise the debt ceiling to pass their massive tax cut for the super wealthy. So the message is: we will only rebuild California if our billionaire and corporate friends get their money. Unreal."

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