Headlines from DPP leader Tamaki have crossed the wires. Notably the leader has stated that the DPP won't join the LDP coalition, stating that they are unsure of what a partial coalition would mean (per BBG). This followed earlier headlines from onshore news wire Yomiuri that PM Ishiba would reach out to the DPP to form a partial coalition. Tamaki added they haven't heard from the LDP about a partial coalition. 

• Other comments from the DPP leader noted though they will not oppose everything as this would not be for the good of the nation.
• Tamaki also stated the DPP is exchanging information with the LDP, CDP and Ishin as well (per BBG). 

Vice President Kamala Harris is shortly due to hold a rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan. LIVESTREAM. 

• The rally comes after today Harris touted investments in state made by the Biden administration from the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, including a campaign stop at a polysilicon semiconductor manufacturing facility in Saginaw that is set to receive USD$325 million in CHIPS funding. In September, Harris unveiled a USD$100 billionmanufacturing agenda in neighbouring Pennsylvania.
• Historically, Michigan is consider the bluest of the three Blue Wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisonsin) but polling this cycle shows a toss-up race leaning slightly towards Harris.
• There has been a lot of scutiny over the vote of the sizable Arab-American population in the state, with reports suggesting Harris could lose a large portion of the vote in protest of the Biden's aministration's handling of the Middle East crisis.
• Nate Silver notes that Arab Americans represent, "only around 2 percent of the Michigan electorate. A 25-point swing in the Arab American vote toward Trump would produce a net shift of about 0.5 points to him in Michigan’s topline numbers. That’s a problem for Harris, but it’s probably not her biggest problem given that Michigan typically provides a bit more cushion to Democrats than the other swing states."

Source: New York Times

Senior Democrats are hopeful that three economic data releases this week on GDP, inflation, and jobs can offer a final argument for Harris to sway voters on the economy. 

• Axios notes: “On Wednesday, new GDP data for the third quarter will show the economy expanded at a robust 3%, according to the consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.Then Thursday, a closely watched inflation measure is likely to show the lowest rate of price increases since early 2021. On Friday, the jobs report should show the lowest pre-election unemployment rate in 24 years — 4.1% in October, according to forecasters.”
• USA Today notes: “Gas prices and mortgage rates are down. Inflation-adjusted incomes are up. And consumer confidence is tepid but well above the threshold that historically has signaled a recession. In past presidential races, those kinds of economic vital signs have reliably foreshadowed victory for the incumbent party in the White House. “
• USA Today notes that “Moody’s Analytics' final election computer model says there’s a 55.5% chance Harris will narrowly win based largely on those positive indicators.”
• Moody’s economist Justin Begley saidthe firm’s election model gives Harris a slight majority of the vote in enough of the seven swing states to nudge her to an Electoral College victory: “That’s a tailwind for Harris. Perceptions of the economy aren’t outweighing the hard data in our model.”

A new survey of the Texas Senate race, conducted by Democrat candidate Rep Colin Allred (D-TX), shows a tied race with Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX). A recent NYT/Siena poll shows Cruz ahead, 50-46. Another poll from Emerson College last week, had Cruz ahead by one point.

• An Allred campaign memo reads: “The momentum in the Texas Senate race is with Colin Allred, but to finish the job he will need the resources to appeal to a broad base of supporters across Texas.”
• If Senator Jon Tester (D-MO) loses in Montana, as polls indicate, then control of the Senate may come down to Texas, a wildcard race in Nebraska, and control of the presidency.
• Spencer Kimball at Emerson College Polling said on the Montana race: "Tester’s support among Montana voters faces a test as Trump appears poised to exceed his 2020 margin of 16.4 percentage points in the state.”
• On that Nebraska race: Independent Dan Osborn is within two points of GOP Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) among likely Nebraska voters, 48 percent to 46 percent, per NYT/Siena.
• The polling suggests that there are feasible pathways to Democrats retaining the Senate, but it likely hinges on a victory by Vice President Harris and a near-perfect performance by Democrat candidates in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Mexico, and Michigan. A tall order reflected in betting markets showing a nearly 85% implied probability that Republicans flip the chamber. 

Figure 1: Montana Senate Race 

Source: Emerson College Polling