We've just published our US Macro Weekly (PDF here):

• An upside surprise in September CPI this week contributed to speculation that the Fed will opt not to cut rates at its next meeting in November, a notion furthered by Atlanta Fed President and 2024 FOMC voter Bostic, who said after the data he would be “totally comfortable” with pausing next month.
• With economic activity seemingly in a solid place (Atlanta Fed GDPNow pointing to 3+% growth in Q3), and no downside surprise to inflation or jobs in September, the FOMC is probably set for another “close call” on November 7 which may hinge on the October payrolls data (Nov 1).
• For the moment, the base case is still for a follow-up 25bp cut. Market pricing for that outcome – which was pared sharply after last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report in favor of a ~25% chance of a pause – actually has solidified slightly since the CPI release, even if a 50bp move appears all but ruled out at this stage.
• Indeed, weekly jobless claims released alongside CPI didn’t further the “skipping” case, with a surprise jump, but at least some of that was accounted for by the impact of Hurricane Helene. Meanwhile, data showed consumer credit growth remains subdued, while producer prices offered a mixed read for the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge.
• Next week brings a lighter calendar. The early highlight will be Fed Governor Waller's speech Monday - any commentary about potential for a November "skip" will be closely eyed. We also get a key update on consumer activity on Thursday with the latest retail sales report for September.

US President Joe Biden, speaking at the White House on the US federal government response to Hurricanes Milton and Helene, has told reporters that he "absolutely, positively," will be telling Israel to avoid military action that could hit United Nations peacekeepers in Lebanon, as a series of Israeli strikes on UNIFL positions on Thursday and Friday pushed relations between Israel and the UN to new lows. 

• Reuters reports that the governments of France, Italy, and Spain released a joint statement a few moments ago saying the, "attacks constitute a serious violation of the obligations of Israel under UN security council resolution 1701 and humanitarian international law." 
• As the region remains braced for Israel's response to Iran, Sky News Arabia reporters, per a source: "Israeli response may include cyber attack on important Iranian facilities separate from military response."
• Barack Ravid at Axios reports on X: "Israeli minister of defense Gallant spoke on the phone last night with Secretary of Defense Austin, briefed him on the Israeli cabinet meeting and discussed the Israeli plans for retaliation against Iran, sources with knowledge told me."
• The Independent reports: "The Israeli military is asking that the peacekeeping force move 5 kilometers (3 miles) north to avoid being caught in the fighting between its troops and Hezbollah militants. That effectively would impede the peacekeeping force from doing its mission."

US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are shortly due to deliver an update from the White House on the federal government's response to Hurricanes Milton and Helene. LIVESTREAM

• Semafor reports: “A Federal Reserve official warned that snarled supply chains after hurricanes Milton and Helene could affect the economy for at least six months, while new data showed jobless claims climbed after Helene.”
• Credit agency Morningstar estimates that the insurance losses from Milton may be between USD$30 and USD$60 billion, while Sherwood reports that some estimates run to USD$150 billion.
• President Joe Biden said in White House remarks yesterday that Congress “should be coming back and moving on emergency needs immediately,” after FEMA burnt through half of the disaster relief money appropriated for this fiscal year in just eight days. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has rejected an emergency session of Congress.  

Executive Summary:

• The presidential election race remains poised on a knife edge, but there has been some positive polling movement for Trump on the margins. The most noticeable action has been a surge towards Trump on prediction markets.  
• A set of New York Times/Siena College polls provided more data to suggest that Trump’s electoral college advantage might be less pronounced this year than in previous cycles. The survey also hinted at a systemic error that may impact the accuracy of polling.
• Trump appears to be closing the gap to Harris in the key northern battlegrounds – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the latter likely to be the most important state of the cycle.
• The number of voters rating the economy as an “extremely important” influence on their vote for president is the highest since October 2008.
• Weak polling for Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) in Montana suggests the race for control of the Senate may be drifting further away from the Democrats.
• Fluid partisan allegiances by gender and ethnicity could have an outsized role in determining who occupies the White House next year. 
• PredictIt, long the most bullish prediction market on Harris, now shows Trump as favourite to win the election for the first time since late July.
• Inside: A full round-up of notable news, polls, and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly