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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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SOUTH AFRICA: Ramaphosa Says S. Africa "Won't Be Bullied" Amid Tensions With US
- President Cyril Ramaphosa told parliament in his State of the Nation Address (SONA) that South Africa "won't be bullied", sending a defiant message to the US after President Donald Trump threatened to cut all aid to the country and Secretary of State Marco Rubio decided to skip a G20 summit in Johannesburg. Furthermore, Ramaphosa outlined plans to continue implementing a structural reform agenda, aiming to "lift economic growth to above 3%". Expectedly, some Government of National Unity (GNU) parties expressed cautious optimism about the speech, while opposition parties MK, EFF and ActionSA signalled their disappointment.
- Ramaphosa said that the government will "proceed with the preparatory work for the establishment of the National Health Insurance (NHI)" but did not mention any changes to the initial project. The proposed NHI bill sowed division among GNU parties but recent reports suggested that they managed to reach compromise over a revised version of the legislation.
- The National Treasury will sell linkers today.
US FISCAL: Trump Tax Priorities Takes Shape With House Leadership Meeting
President Trump has laid out his tax priorities with Republican House Representatives, per multiple news outlets citing the White House press secretary. They are:
- Renewing the TCJA tax cuts
- Eliminating tax on tips, Social Security, and overtime pay
- Cutting taxes on products that are made in the US
- Adjusting the SALT (state and local tax) cap
- Eliminating tax breaks for sports team owners
- Closing the "carried interest" loophole
There are plenty of details yet to be seen about several of these propositions, but Trump's biggest tax cut proposals in the campaign had been the first three (TCJA, various tax eliminations, corporate tax cuts for domestic producers), which over 10 years would cost $6-7T ($3.4T making TCJA permanent plus potential $1T for estate/business tax cut permanence, $1.2T Soc Sec, $120B tipping income tax/$200B if also exempting payroll tax; $750B overtime tax; $360B lowering corporate rate for domestic producers to 15% - all estimates from the Tax Foundation). We assume that Trump is making the case for the TCJA cuts to be permanent though some fiscal hawks have pushed for them to be only temporary.
- The SALT adjustment is a question here, as restoration of the full deduction would cost $1T over 10 years, but one that Trump will probably need to include to get some members of Congress on board - doubling the cap for married couples would add $100-200B to the bill.
- Some items from the campaign trail are missing, for example an itemized deduction for auto loan interest, though that was "only" due to cost $60B, and it may yet be included in the final proposal.
- The main surprises here are the latter two: closing the "carried interest" loophole which applies mainly to private equity and investment managers, but would only cut the deficit by $11B over 10 years (around $1B per year) per CBO estimates, while the impact of the sports team owner tax break elimination is unclear.
- There's no word on the revenue side of the equation - particularly on tariffs - and cutting expenditure in the budget, which will be essential to closing the gap implied by the tax cuts and get the bill through the reconciliation process. Axios reported that Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Majority Whip Tom Emmer were in attendance, among others, though we haven't heard anything further.
US: Treasury Sec Bessent On A Strong Dollar, Tariffs, Issuance Outlook
(MNI New York): Tsy Sec Bessent speaks on Bloomberg TV on a wide variety of topics, reiterating that the Trump administration would uphold the US's "strong dollar" policy, taking a hard line on Chinese economic policy and the US response, discounting the inflationary impact of tariffs, and underlining Wednesday's Refunding guidance that Treasury ssuance sizes are not set to rise in the near future.
- Asked what a "strong dollar" means to him: "A strong dollar really means four things. When we think about a fiat currency, a piece of paper's credibility, a strong dollar is credibility, and a rule of law backing that up. Two, it means a composite price on the screen, the dollar index, is the dollar moving up against that. Three, it is a bilateral price. What is important to remember is the dollar is either weak or strong versus something else. We want the dollar to be strong. What we don't want is for other countries to weaken their currencies to manipulate their trade. And fourth, we want to have the best policies that create the environment for a strong dollar."
- Asked about whether other countries are manipulating their currencies right now: "We will wait until the [April 1] study comes out, but intuitively, you and I could agree, when you see the accumulation of these large surpluses, there is not a free-form trading system that is growing. It could be due to the level of the currency, could be due to trade restrictions, it could be due to some interest-rate repression policy. It can be any of those." Asked if China or other countries are being watched, Bessent says: "We will see on April 1. As you know, China is the most unbalanced economy in the history of the world. They are in a deep recession right now. They are experiencing deflation, and they are trying to export their way out of that. We cannot allow that. We want fair trade. Part of that is taking a strong position on the currency and the terms of trade."
- On Treasury issuance, echoes the February Refunding guidance (presumably he's talking about the third quarter of the fiscal year, not the calendar year): "I think the good news is the trajectory of the borrowing is dropping. I was happy to see that, one of the few surprises. The trajectory is good. The government is well-financed until the end of the third quarter. I believe, as it becomes apparent that the President's agenda is working, we will see a great deal of non-inflationary growth. I think that will help us calibrate what the debt policies should be. But I don't foresee any changes in the issuance for this -- for the foreseeable future."
- On tariffs: " I am not sure where this narrative, the country putting on the tariffs, that it is inflationary, comes from. We could have a small one-time price adjustment, as we saw in Trump 1.0, though deregulation and the other policies stayed right around the Fed's target level. I am unconcerned about that. Especially with China now, given all of their excess capacity, no matter the level of the tariffs, they will end up eating quite a bit."
- Bessent largely repeats his previous comments on interest rates, saying the administration is "not focused on whether the Fed will cut, not cut" but rather on "how to get the whole curve down", specifically mentioning the 10Y Treasury yield which "I believe, is the important price to focus on, mortgages, long-term capital formation. I think with the President's policies of energy dominance, deregulation, noninflationary growth, I think the 10-year will naturally come down. On top of it, what if we do get some big savings on the spending side from the DOGE programs?"
US: Greer Says USTR Will Be Prepared To Enforce 'Phase 1' Trade Deal With China
US President Donald Trump’s nominee to serve as United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, is delivering testimony at his first nomination hearing before the Senate Financial Services Committee. LIVESTREAM
- Asked about recent reports suggesting Trump may reduce the influence of the USTR, Greer says he will be involved in negotiating trade deals and enforcing Section 301 tariffs, noting that Trump expects all his Cabinet officials to work together on trade policy.
- Greer echoed recent comments from Trump’s trade strategist, Peter Navarro, saying that tariff threats levied against Mexico and Canada are aimed at reducing illicit flows of Fentanyl rather than a trade war.
- Greer, who was instrumental in negotiating the defunct ‘Phase 1’ trade deal with China during the first Trump administration, said his office will “quickly review China’s compliance with 'Phase 1' and be prepared to enforce it”.
- Greer added, “China’s subsidies make it very difficult for others to compete, result in excess industrial capacity… trade reciprocity with China requires both tariffs and non-tariff barriers”.
- Greer said that the USMCA trade deal "needs to be reviewed" to make sure that foreign countries of concern are not free-riding on access to the US market. The USMCA is scheduled for a 2026 joint review, which may explain some of Trump's hardline rhetoric.
- Asked about his preferred approach to tariffs, Greer said, “universal tariff should be studied and considered to see if it can reduce US trade deficit,” adding that “tariffs can be a tool for market access and for revenue”
MNI REAL-TIME COVERAGE
AUTOMOTIVE: Nissan (NSANY Baa3[N]/BB+[N]/BBB-[N]): Hon Hai Links Resurface
POWER: Nordic MarchLikely to Drop On The Day But Could Settle Higher on Week
UTILITIES: Naturgy (NTGYSM Baa2/BBB/BBB): Taqa Renews Interest

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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.