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Free AccessOff Worst Levels Into Europe, Bear Flattening Again
A combination of spill over from Thursday’s cheapening, hawkish sell-side calls (Nomura now look for back-to-back 75bp rate hikes from the Fed in June & July after a “likely” 50bp move in May), hawkish BoC speak and weakness in Aussie bonds applied pressure to Tsys in the Asia-Pac session, although the space has corrected from worst levels of the day ahead of London dealing.
- TYM2 trades -0-05 at 118-19, 0-11 off fresh cycle lows, on volume of ~155K. Note that TU-UXY contracts showed through their Thursday lows after the Nomura Fed call hit the wider wires, with a flow-drive element likely exacerbating weakness at that time.
- Cash Tsys sit 1.5-3.5bp cheaper across the curve, bear flattening.
- FOMC meeting dated OIS now prices a cumulative ~151bp of tightening across the next 3 Fed meetings i.e. 3 consecutive 50bp hikes are fully priced.
- The Eurodollar strip moved with the wider bond market gyrations, trading 2.0-3.0 ticks lower through the reds at typing, also off of worst levels.
- Flash PMI data from across the globe headlines the broader docket on Friday.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.