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Final Polls Show Macron-Le Pen Gap Widening Further

FRANCE

The last opinion polls to be carried out ahead of the 24 April run-off election between President Emmanuel Macron and right-wing Rassembelement National leader Marine Le Pen continue to show the incumbent widening the gap between he and Le Pen in the last stages of the campaign.

  • OpinionWay poll: Macron (EC-RE): 57% (+1), Le Pen (RN-ID): 43% (-1). (+/- vs. 19-21 April 2022). Fieldwork: 20-22 April 2022. Sample size: 2,329
  • YouGov/Datapraxis: Emmanuel Macron: 56% (+2), Marine Le Pen: 44% (-2), Chgs w/ 12-14 Apr, Fieldwork 19-21 Apr. Sample: 1,801
  • Key factor in the vote is the decision of those who supported far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon in the first round. Accounting for 22% of first round voters, this cohort is the 'kingmaker' in the final vote. YouGov poll showing them breaking 2:1 in Macron's favour, a decisive proportion.
Chart 1. Poll-Who Melenchon Voters are Backing in Run-Off, %

Source: YouGov/Datapraxis. 19-21 Apr. Sample: 470 registered 1st round Melenchon voters.

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The last opinion polls to be carried out ahead of the 24 April run-off election between President Emmanuel Macron and right-wing Rassembelement National leader Marine Le Pen continue to show the incumbent widening the gap between he and Le Pen in the last stages of the campaign.

  • OpinionWay poll: Macron (EC-RE): 57% (+1), Le Pen (RN-ID): 43% (-1). (+/- vs. 19-21 April 2022). Fieldwork: 20-22 April 2022. Sample size: 2,329
  • YouGov/Datapraxis: Emmanuel Macron: 56% (+2), Marine Le Pen: 44% (-2), Chgs w/ 12-14 Apr, Fieldwork 19-21 Apr. Sample: 1,801
  • Key factor in the vote is the decision of those who supported far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon in the first round. Accounting for 22% of first round voters, this cohort is the 'kingmaker' in the final vote. YouGov poll showing them breaking 2:1 in Macron's favour, a decisive proportion.
Chart 1. Poll-Who Melenchon Voters are Backing in Run-Off, %

Source: YouGov/Datapraxis. 19-21 Apr. Sample: 470 registered 1st round Melenchon voters.

Keep reading...Show less