Leftist Petro Extends Wide Lead In Latest Poll

Latest opinion poll ahead of the 29 May presidential election shows leftist 'Historic Pact' alliance candidate Gustavo Petro extending his lead over his competitiors.

• CNC poll: Petro (PH): 43% (+3), Gutiérrez (EpC): 27% (-), Hernandez (LGAC): 11% (-3), Fajardo (CCE): 8.1% (-0.3). (+/- vs. March 2022). Fieldwork: 18-22 April, 2022. Sample size: 4,599
• Colombian presidential elections are held under a two-round system. If no candidate wins 50%+1 of the first-round vote then a run-off between the two highest-placed candidates takes place three weeks later.
• The most likely outcome at present would be a run-off between senator and former Mayor of Bogota Petro and centre-right Team for Colombia (EpC) candidate Federico Guttierez. The CNC poll showed Petro leading Guttierez by 44.8% to 36.9% in a hypothetical second-round matchup, while a poll from the same outlet earlier in April showed the two within the margin of error.
• While Petro is clearly the frontrunner at present, there remains a widespread dislike of the political left in sections of Colombian society. As can be seen in the hypothetical second round poll, Petro struggles to win more votes than he did in the first round, while Guttierez picks up a sizeable proportion of votes from those who support other candidates.
• Petro's best chance of winning election could come in winning more than 50% of the vote in the first round, eliminating the need for a second round, during which Gutierrez may be able to coalesce support from failed first round candidates around his campaign to keep the left from power.