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Near-Term Rate Hikes Pulled Forward

CANADA
  • A combination of Gov. Macklem’s openness to larger than 50bp hikes and rampant industrial price inflation has helped drive the BAX curve steepen at the very front end with 10-11.5 tick declines across front whites.
  • The terminal rate appears somewhat capped however, with implied yields falling 6-7bps to remain crudely consistent with an overnight rate around 3.25% in 2023, above the 2-3% range the BoC now sees a neutral (a flattening through 2023 that has continued throughout today).
  • The next key trigger comes with Macklem’s 2hr appearance at the House finance committee on Monday, 1100ET.

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