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Fed Hikes Step Back From Friday Highs

STIR FUTURES
  • Hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds have firmed through the London session but remain off Friday’s highs. It follows a particularly strong week, with almost an extra 25bp hike priced for the year compared to this time last week.
  • A 50bp hike is still seen as locked-in for May, followed by 108bp for June, 155bp for July, 194bp for Sep (high just over 200bp) and 240bps for Dec (high just over 250bp).
  • Mester, ’22 voter and at the hawkish end of the spectrum, was the last member to speak ahead of the media blackout on Fri and pushed back on the prospect of 75bp hikes with a preference for a methodical approach involving 50bp clips to get to a neutral rate of circa 2.5%.

Cumulative hikes for specific FOMC meetings, from Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg

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