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Feb. Economic Activity Data Due, USDMXN Rises Above Resistance

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso outperformed relative to regional counterparts on Friday, however, pressures on global risk sentiment from the open have sparked fresh MXN selling.
  • Last week’s rally resulted in a break of 20.1950, Apr 6 high, and price has also traded above the 50-day EMA - a bullish development. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Mar-Apr range, at 20.3992 has been breached, suggesting the potential for a move to 20.5975, the 50.0% retracement. Key support has been defined at 19.7274, the Apr 4 low.
  • Increased hawkishness towards the FED and the ongoing weakness in CNH is adding to the headwinds for regional currencies at this juncture. Additional uncertainties relating to President AMLO’s energy reform and in particular his Lithium bill provide additional obstacles.
  • At the top of the hour, we will see activity data for February, with retail sales, trade balance and GDP figures all due throughout the week:
    • 1200BST/0700ET - Feb. Economic Activity IGAE MoM, prior 0.40%
    • 1200BST/0700ET - Feb. Economic Activity IGAE YoY, prior 1.75%
  • Fitch Ratings’ view that significant financial support for Pemex is unpredictable was validated when Mexico’s Finance Ministry withdrew its announced support for the state oil company in 2Q, according to a note from the ratings company.
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