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FRANCE
Following the relatively comfortable win for President Emmanuel Macron in the 24 April presidential run-off, focus will now turn to the country's legislative elections, scheduled to take place on 12 and 19 June.
- Elections will take place over two rounds to decide on the 577 members of the National Assembly, the lower chamber of the French Parliament.
- The Republique En Marche (LREM) movement of President Macron and its allies currently hold a majority with 346 of the 577 seats. The two-round electoral system has a similar impact in legislative elections as it does at the presidential level, often keeping the number of far-left or far-right assembly members at a much lower level than their respective vote shares might suggest (Marine Le Pen's Front National won 13% of the first round vote and 9% of the final round vote but emerged with just eight seats in 2017).
- In polling carried out in the days ahead of the presidential second round, voters seemed to support a greater present for the far-left and far-right in the National Assembly, with 39% and 38% of respondents wanting to see a stronger La France Insoumise (the party of leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon) and Rassembelement National (of Marine Le Pen) respectively (see chart below).
- Respondents are most negative towards the two main historic parties of France, the centre-left Socialists and centre-right Les Republicains. Forty-seven per cent of respondents want to see both parties have a weaker presence in the National Assembly after the elections.
- Should be noted that the public's opinons on parties often change following the second-round presidential election. Could provide a boost to Macron's LREM's prospects of maintaining a majority.
Chart 1. Poll: 'Would you like the following parties to get stronger/weaker/neither in the legislative elections?'
Source: Ipsos-Sopra Steria. 4,000 respondents, 21-23 April. LFI-La France Insoumise, PCF-Communist Party of France, EELV-European Ecology-The Greens, PS-Socialist Party, LREM-La Republique En Marche, LR-Les Republicains, RN-Rassembelement National, REC-Reconquest.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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