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USD Net Long Specs Fall Despite Suring Dollar

FOREX
  • Net long specs on the US Dollar ticked lower in the week ended April 19 despite the USD spike, decreasing by 9.4K to a total of 71.8K contracts.
    • Speculative positions against the Yen continue have been growing rapidly, currently standing at November 2018 highs (+107.2K) as investors have become increasingly bearish on JPY amid monetary policy divergence.
  • The global risk off environment triggered by the renewed geopolitical tensions has been supporting ‘safe-haven’ assets such as the US Dollar.
  • In addition, hawkish comments from Fed policymakers continue to levitate US ST bonds yields, pushing preference for the greenback.
    • Last week, St. Louis President Bullard mentioned that a potential 75bps hike cannot be ruled out given the current level of inflation.
  • The DXY index broke above the 101 level last week and is gradually approaching the 102 resistance.
  • Key resistance to watch on the topside stands at 102.98, which was the high reached in March 2020 following the Covid19 shock.
  • On the downside, support to watch stands at 100, followed by 99.7290, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibo retracement of the 89.21 - 102.98 range.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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