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Rates Rally Preserves Front-Loaded Path

CANADA
  • Consistent with the modest unwinding of the earlier Eurodollars rally, BAX futures are now up to 18 ticks higher on the day.
  • The move has been led by the red pack, pushing the crudely implied terminal rate in 2023 to only marginally above the upper limit of the BoC’s neutral range of 2-3%.
  • The white pack has seen smaller moves though and still has a comfortably more front-loaded rate path than following the BoC’s 50bp hike two weeks ago, with ~30bps of additional hikes for BAZ2.
  • Dep Gov Lane’s comments tomorrow are unlikely to have many direct mon pol impacts and the nature of Gov Macklem’s comments today suggest a low likelihood for a surprise at his Senate appearance on Wed, leaving GDP for Feb on Fri as the main local trigger this week.


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