MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Confirms Extension of Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Confirms Extension of Downtrend

• S&P E-Minis traded lower Monday before recovering from the 4195.25 low. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend and the outlook remains bearish. This has opened 4129.50, the Mar 15 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures failed to hold onto last week’s highs and are again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low and a bear trigger.
• The EURUSD downtrend remains intact. The pair traded lower Monday, clearing support at 1.0758, the Apr 14 low and a short-term bear trigger. EURGBP is trading near its recent highs. The cross traded sharply higher Friday. This resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8405, the Apr 11 high, which marked a key short-term resistance. Monday’s pullback in EURJPY suggests the cross has entered a corrective phase. Attention is on support at 136.35, the 20-day EMA, where a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
• WTI futures traded lower Monday and below the 50-day EMA. A recent failure to challenge resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high, highlighted a bearish threat. A clear break of the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $97.83 today, would strengthen bearish conditions and suggest scope for a deeper sell-off. Gold traded lower Monday and the yellow metal cleared support at the 50-day EMA. The pullback from last week’s high of $1998.4 (Apr 18), highlights a bearish threat and attention is on key support that lies at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low.
• Bund futures gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme continues to dominate and fresh cycle lows last week reinforce this outlook. The move lower also confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, despite yesterday’s climb. Fresh cycle lows last week, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and this maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1076 High Apr 1
• RES 2: 1.0998 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0870/0936 20-day EMA / High Apr 21
• PRICE: 1.0727 @ 06:12 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 1.0697 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 1.0659 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0636 Low March 23 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0496 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

The EURUSD downtrend remains intact. The pair traded lower Monday, clearing support at 1.0758, the Apr 14 low and a short-term bear trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 1.0727 has also given way, the Apr 24 2020 low and this signals scope for a move towards 1.0636 next, the Mar 23 2020 low and the next major support. 1.0936 is key trend resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heavy!

• RES 4: 1.3158 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3090/3147 High Apr 21 / High Apr 14
• RES 2: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.2877 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 1.2756 @ 06:20 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 1.2698 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 1.2676 Low Sep 23, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.2644 Low Jul 22 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2495 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan 21 bull leg

Monday’s weakness in GBPUSD confirmed an extension of the current downtrend. The pair cleared the bear trigger at 1.2974, Apr 13 low. This strengthens the bearish outlook and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.2676 next, the Sep 23 2020 low. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.3147, the Apr 14 high. Initial resistance is at Monday’s 1.2877 intraday high.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Dec 14 2020
• RES 3: 0.8512 High Mar 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8482 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8441 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 0.8407 @ 06:24 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 0.8358 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

EURGBP is trading near its recent highs. The cross traded sharply higher Friday. This resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8405, the Apr 11 high, which marked a key short-term resistance. The breach of this level represents a bullish development and has also resulted in a test of 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. An extension would open 0.8512. Initial support lies at 0.8358, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 130.43 High Apr 24 2002
• RES 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 129.44 0.764 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• PRICE: 128.06 @ 06:31 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 127.35/126.98 Intraday low / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 125.87 Low Apr 15
• SUP 3: 125.45 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY is in consolidation mode and this sideways activity highlights the formation of a bull flag. The pattern reinforces bullish conditions with the uptrend still intact. Last week’s price gains marked an extension of the uptrend, signalling potential for a continuation higher. The focus on 129.44 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the important psychological 130.00 handle. A firm support is seen at 125.45, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 141.67 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 140.93 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 1: 139.48/140.00 High Apr 25 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 137.31 @ 06:38 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 136.35 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 135.52 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 134.36 Low Apr 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.94 Low Mar 28

This would expose key trend support at 134.36, Apr 8 low. The broader uptrend remains intact. This follows the recent move through 137.50/53, the Feb 2 2018 and Mar 28 highs. 140.00, the Apr 21 high, is the bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 0.7493 Apr 12 high and key intraday resistance
• RES 3: 0.7458 High Apr 20/21
• RES 2: 0.7359 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7261 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 0.7221 @ 06:43 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 0.7135 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 0.7095 Low Feb 24 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 0.7052 Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 0.6985 Low Jan 31

AUDUSD traded sharply lower Monday, extending the recent impulsive sell-off. The pair has traded below support at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low and a key short-term bear trigger. A clear break of this level would reinforce current bearish conditions and pave the way for a move towards 0.7095, the Feb 24 low. Initial resistance is seen at Monday’s intraday high of 0.7261. Firmer resistance however is at 0.7366, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2901 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2871 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 1.2786 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2777 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 1.2691 @ 06:50 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 1.2626 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDCAD rallied sharply higher on Apr 22 and cleared a directional trigger at 1.2676, the Apr 13 high. This has strengthened a short-term bullish theme, and Monday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The focus is on 1.2786 next, 76.4% of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg. On the downside, Friday’s 1.2568 low is seen as a firm short-term support. Initial support is at 1.2626, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 159.58 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 159.79 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 156.37 High Apr 14 and the 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 155.00 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 154.25 @ 05:24 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 153.05/153.00 Low Apr 22 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bunds futures gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme continues to dominate and fresh cycle lows last week reinforce this outlook. The move lower also confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 153.00 next ahead of 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). Initial resistance is at 155.26, Apr 26 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Southbound

• RES 4: 129.675 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a key trend resistance
• RES 2: 128.224/310 20-day EMA / High Apr 8
• RES 1: 127.900 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 127.360 @ 05:25 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 126.660 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bobl futures gains are considered corrective. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows last week and this reinforces the primary downtrend. The move lower also maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages continue to point south. The focus is on 126.480 next, the Jun 5 2014 low (cont). Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 128.310, the Apr 14 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 110.607/660 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• RES 1: 110.365 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 110.285 @ 05:20 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 110.060 Low Apr 22 / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows last week, confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower also confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. The focus is on 109.983 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at 110.660, the Apr 14 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 121.88 High Apr 5
• RES 3: 120.96 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 119.54/73 20-day EMA / High Apr 11
• RES 1: 119.31 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 119.18 @ Close Apr 25
• SUP 1: 117.22 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, despite yesterday’s climb. Fresh cycle lows last week, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and this maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies continue to point south. The focus is on 117.04 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA, at 119.58, is seen as a firm resistance.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 139.23 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 138.68 High Mar 31 and key resistance
• RES 2: 137.74 High Apr 5
• RES 1: 134.87/135.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• PRICE: 132.31 @ Close Apr 25
• SUP 1: 131.30 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

BTP futures remain near recent lows. Fresh cycle lows last week confirmed a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode too. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high. The 20-day EMA, at 134.87, marks initial resistance.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Breaches Support

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 3745.00 @ 05:53 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 3665.00 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 3626.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3551.60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3523.00 Low Mar 11

EUROSTOXX 50 futures failed to hold onto last week’s highs and are again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this support highlights a resumption of bearish activity and opens 3626.50, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a break above 3883.00, Apr 21 high, would open the 3944.00 key resistance point.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Hammer Candle Formation?

• RES 4: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 4509.00 High Apr 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4355.50 Low Apr 18
• PRICE: 4299.25 @ 06:48 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 4195.25 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 4129.50 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4094.25 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4063.24 1.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded lower Monday before recovering from the 4195.25 low. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend and the outlook remains bearish. This has opened 4129.50, the Mar 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4509.00, Apr 21 high. A near-term concern for bears is a hammer candle formation yesterday. If correct, it suggests scope for a stronger corrective bounce.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 3: $119.74 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $114.84 - High Apr 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $109.80 - High Apr 21
• PRICE: $103.66 @ 06:54 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $99.48 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $97.57 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.58 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures traded lower Monday and this has strengthened a short-term bearish threat. A recent failure to challenge resistance at $114.84, Apr 18 high and the move through the 50-day EMA yesterday, which intersects at $102.71 today, signals potential for an extension lower. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would open $94.61, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $109.80.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Still Looking For Weakness

• RES 4: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $110.22 - High Mar 28
• RES 1: $105.42/109.20 - High Apr 21 / High Apr 18
• PRICE: $99.44 @ 07:00 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $95.28 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $86.67 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures traded lower Monday and below the 50-day EMA. A recent failure to challenge resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high, highlighted a bearish threat. A clear break of the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $97.83 today, would strengthen bearish conditions and suggest scope for a deeper sell-off towards $90.37, the Mar 15 low and an important bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at $105.42.

GOLD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 3: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $1945.1 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1904.3 @ 07:19 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold traded lower Monday and the yellow metal cleared support at the 50-day EMA. The pullback from last week’s high of $1998.4 (Apr 18), highlights a bearish threat and attention is on key support that lies at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. This level also represents an important bear trigger. A break would open $1878.4 initially, the Feb 24 low. On the upside, $1998.4 has been defined as a key resistance.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 3: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $24.710 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.745 @ 07:25 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $23.402 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $23.173 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $22.863 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support

Silver remains soft following the reversal last week from the Apr 18 high of $26.222. The metal traded lower again yesterday, starting the week on a bearish note. This reinforces the current bear cycle and the bearish implications of the recent breach of the 50-day EMA. Support at $23.974, Mar 29 low, has been cleared. This opens $23.173, 76.4% of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally. Clearance of $26.222 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.