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PREVIEW: Greece 5y tap (2/2)

EGB SYNDICATION
  • Greek spreads have risen notably this week, the spread on the 2.00% Apr-27 GGB to the 0% Apr-27 Bobl has increased from around 120-135bp last week to over 170bp at the time of writing, with yields having risen above the 2.00% psychological level (and 10-year GGB yields having breached 3.00%).
  • This move is partly due to expectations of supply, partly due to S&P only upgrading Greece by one notch (i.e. not to investment grade) and noting that this was with a "stable" outlook (so making it unlikely for a short-term upgrade to IG from S&P which some had expected after payments to the IMF had been completed). To a lesser extent also due to risk aversion in bond markets seeing all EGB spreads widen.
  • Timing: Books normally open between 8:00-8:30 (the last two opened at 8:30 and 8:20). The spread was set on the January 2022 syndication just before 10:10, but prior syndications in 2021 have seen it set between 10:30-11:40. Books have closed between 11:00-12:00 (11:00 in January 2022). Final terms have ranged between 11:55-14:25 (last at 13:48) with pricing of single tranche deals generally 90-120 minutes after final terms.

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