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Weekend Results to be Important Gauge Ahead of 2024 Presidential Run

MEXICO
  • Ahead of this weekend’s state elections across Mexico, JP Morgan write that in their view the results will be important to gauge the strength of the political forces ahead of the presidential election of 2024, particularly considering that all six states are currently governed by opposition parties from the VxM coalition.
  • They note that only in one election is the coalition expected to win. While the sample of states in Sunday’s elections is an interesting mix in terms of economic activities and geographical location, JPM believe it is only a partial representation of the perception of the governing party and the opposition given the share of the electoral representation is less than 15%.
  • A potential electoral reform should be closely watched in the next months as Morena continues to blame the Electoral Institute (INE) for the recall referendum failure in April.
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