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July PPI Shows First Positive Intermediate Goods Inflation Since Apr'23

GERMAN DATA

German July producer prices came in in line with expectations - both on a sequential and yearly comparison, falling 0.8% Y/Y (-1.6% prior) and increasing 0.2% M/M (+0.2% prior).

  • Looking at the individual categories, energy base effects continue to taper off (-4.1% Y/Y, highest rate since June 2023 vs -5.9% prior). Note that despite the fading base effects, if energy prices stayed constant at their July level they would still not be positive until April 2025.
  • Intermediate goods inflation printed in positive territory for the first time since April 2023 (+0.3% Y/Y vs -0.9% prior) in another sign that the trend of gradually lower goods contributions to overall headline CPI will fade off (as it has already started to). Intermediate goods prices are now almost 1.5% above their recent trough seen in November 2023.
  • Investment goods inflation meanwhile continued to taper off, coming in at +2.0% Y/Y (vs +2.3% prior, lowest rate since August 2021).
  • There was meanwhile no change since last month in the yearly rates of durable, non-durable, and consumption goods categories.
German PPI MetricsJul % Y/YJun % Y/Y
Investment Goods2.0%2.3%
Intermediate Goods0.3%-0.9%
Durable Goods0.7%0.7%
Non-Durable Goods0.6%0.6%
Consumption Goods0.6%0.6%
Energy-4.1%-5.9%
Total -0.8%-1.6%

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