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Headline Consumer Sentiment Softens, House Price Expectations Rise Further

SOUTH KOREA
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South Korea consumer sentiment headline eased to 100.8 for August, versus 103.6 in July. It is the first headline fall since May of this year and puts the index back close to neutral levels. We are still above late 2023 lows for the index (97.3)

  • GDP growth momentum eased in Q2 but current consumer sentiment levels aren't pointing to a further drastic slowing at this stage.
  • In terms of the detail, spending plans all ticked down relative to July readings. Employment expectations also edged down but remain within recent ranges.
  • On the price outlook, we saw a rise in expected house price changes. This reading is now at 118 versus 92 back in February. The index is now back to 2021 levels. This is a BoK and broader authority watch point, particularly ahead of an expected BoK easing cycle (although no change is expected at this Thursday's meeting).
  • Today the Financial Services Commission head will meet with banking executives to discuss household debt levels (per BBG).
  • In terms of inflation, expectations were steady at 2.9%, unchanged from July. This compares with the recent headline inflation read of 2.6%y/y, see the chart below.

Fig 1: South Korea Household Inflation Expectations Steady In August

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South Korea consumer sentiment headline eased to 100.8 for August, versus 103.6 in July. It is the first headline fall since May of this year and puts the index back close to neutral levels. We are still above late 2023 lows for the index (97.3)

  • GDP growth momentum eased in Q2 but current consumer sentiment levels aren't pointing to a further drastic slowing at this stage.
  • In terms of the detail, spending plans all ticked down relative to July readings. Employment expectations also edged down but remain within recent ranges.
  • On the price outlook, we saw a rise in expected house price changes. This reading is now at 118 versus 92 back in February. The index is now back to 2021 levels. This is a BoK and broader authority watch point, particularly ahead of an expected BoK easing cycle (although no change is expected at this Thursday's meeting).
  • Today the Financial Services Commission head will meet with banking executives to discuss household debt levels (per BBG).
  • In terms of inflation, expectations were steady at 2.9%, unchanged from July. This compares with the recent headline inflation read of 2.6%y/y, see the chart below.

Fig 1: South Korea Household Inflation Expectations Steady In August

Keep reading...Show less