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RBC: Payrolls Keeps The Fed Moving Quickly Back To Neutral

US

RBC see a tightening in the labour market that can’t easily be addressed in the near-term, they expect the Fed to keep moving faster to get back to neutral, including another 50bp hike on Jun 15.

  • The unemployment rate at 3.6% was unchanged from April and around pre-pandemic lows whilst the labour force participation rate has been much slower to come back at 62.3% in May relative to a percent higher in February 2020.
  • Aging demographics and shifting job preferences during the pandemic have both made post-pandemic hiring a lot more difficult, a tightening in the labour market that can’t be easily addressed in the near-term.
  • Labour shortages are particularly acute for high-contact client facing industries, with leisure & hospitality still down 1.3mln from pre-pandemic, and wage growth is set to accelerate further in the near-term.
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