Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI (LONDON) - See here for the key events next week in Developed and Emerging Markets:
Developed Markets
THURSDAY / FRIDAY - US Q2 GDP / July PCE
Monday’s preliminary durable goods data aside, the week’s main US data are backloaded with the second Q2 national accounts release on Thursday before the July PCE report on Friday. Last month’s advance Q2 release saw real GDP growth surprise analysts with 2.8% annualized vs consensus of 2.0% although it was closer to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow of 2.7% so not a huge surprise. The median analyst sees no reason to alter that 2.8% for this second release although one standout view is GS looking for a downward revision to 2.4%. Latest momentum for Q3 has also faded recently, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow trimmed to 2.0%. As for monthly core PCE inflation, the median analyst looks for another 0.2% M/M reading but both the June and estimated July prints are likely to be exaggerated by rounding. A collection of unrounded post-CPI and PPI analyst estimates averaged 0.15% M/M for core PCE after the 0.18% in June (pending revisions). We expect the consumer spending data to take increasing prominence as the health of the consumer is increasingly in focus to help gauge the impact from a cooling labor market, although the following week’s payrolls report on Sep 6 is likely the key driver of 25bp vs 50bp cut expectations for the Sep 18 FOMC decision.
THURSDAY / FRIDAY - Eurozone August Flash Inflation
Eurozone flash August inflation is due on Friday, with Spanish and German national data released a day earlier. Early consensus sees headline inflation falling to 2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior) due to base effects, after energy inflation rose 3.3% M/M in August 2023. Core inflation is seen falling a touch to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.9% prior). Analysts see limited further downside for core goods disinflation, while services disinflation has been sluggish for much of this year. While the August data may help shape the ECB’s communication at the Sep 12 meeting, it won’t deter policymakers from delivering a 25bp rate cut, which is fully priced in ESTR OIS.
FRIDAY - Japan August Macro Data
Next Friday delivers July jobless figures, along with August Tokyo CPI prints. There has been somewhat of a divergence between headline and core CPI measures (ex fresh food and energy). This trend will be watched, along with signs of services inflation and utilities. The jobs market looks to be past its best, but the jobless rate remains low. Other data due include Industrial Production and retail sales. Consumer spending trends will be watched as this is a key part of the BoJ's second half economic outlook.
FRIDAY - Canada Q2 GDP
The Q2 GDP release is likely to carry particular importance on Friday after the Bank of Canada's surprisingly dovish commentary in July concerning the build in excess supply. The BoC's July MPR forecast real GDP growth of 1.5% in Q2 after the disappointing 1.7% in Q1, before an acceleration to 2.8% in Q3. The July advance for separate monthly GDP data by industry will help provide an early look as to how achievable this Q3 figure looks. Latest retail sales data indicated a solid 0.6% M/M increase in July but this is only in nominal terms and with volumes up to June looking far more tepid. With the Bank estimating potential output growth of 2.4% in 2024 before 1.9% through 2025-26, any downside surprises for Q2 will see a further increase to ongoing excess supply. On the flip side, surprise strength could see greater odds of a temporary pause from the Bank at Oct or Dec meetings but we feel that would have to be significant, with subsequent labour or inflation reports of more note here.
Emerging Markets
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The National Bank of Hungary is broadly expected to pause its rate cutting cycle and keep the base rate unchanged at 6.75%, though risks of an additional 25bp cut are noted by some analysts. While the strengthening of the forint over the past month could provide room for further easing, the above-consensus inflation print in July will likely prompt caution at this juncture instead, with rate cuts seen resuming in the coming months.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 24/08/2024 | 1625/1825 |  EU | ECB's Lane in panel at Jackson Hole | |
| 25/08/2024 | 1500/1700 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in panel at the Rimini Meeting | |
| 26/08/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 26/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** |  DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 26/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 26/08/2024 | 1300/1500 | ** |  BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 26/08/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 26/08/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 26/08/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 27/08/2024 | 2301/0001 | * |  GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 27/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** | DE | GDP (f) |
| 27/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | * | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 27/08/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 27/08/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 27/08/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 27/08/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 27/08/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 27/08/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 27/08/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 27/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 27/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 27/08/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 27/08/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 27/08/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 28/08/2024 | 0130/1130 | *** |  AU | Quarterly construction work done |
| 28/08/2024 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 28/08/2024 | 0600/1400 | ** |  CN | MNI China Liquidity Index (CLI) |
| 28/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** |  FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 28/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | M3 |
| 28/08/2024 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 28/08/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 28/08/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 28/08/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 28/08/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 28/08/2024 | 2200/1800 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 29/08/2024 | 0130/1130 | * | AU | Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure |
| 29/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
| 29/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | GDP |
| 29/08/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (p) |
| 29/08/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 29/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 29/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 29/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 29/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 29/08/2024 | 0915/1115 | EU | ECB's Lane in panel "Inflation - challenges..." | |
| 29/08/2024 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | GDP |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Current account |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 29/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 29/08/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 29/08/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 29/08/2024 | 1930/1530 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 30/08/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 30/08/2024 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 30/08/2024 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 30/08/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 30/08/2024 | 0030/1030 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
| 30/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 30/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 30/08/2024 | 0630/0730 | GB | UK DMO to release FQ3 issuance calendar | |
| 30/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (p) |
| 30/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 30/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) |
| 30/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 30/08/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** |  CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 30/08/2024 | 0705/0905 | EU | ECB's Schnabel at Ragnar Nurkse Lecture | |
| 30/08/2024 | 0735/0935 | EU | ECB's Schnabel in panel at Ragnar Nurkse | |
| 30/08/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 30/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 30/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 30/08/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
| 30/08/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 30/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
| 30/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment |
| 30/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 30/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
| 30/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 30/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
| 30/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 30/08/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 30/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 30/08/2024 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 30/08/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 31/08/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/08/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.