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UBS: Notably Above CPI Consensus

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • UBS see core inflation notably above consensus in May, rising +0.65% M/M with relatively little moderation in airfares as they slow from the record 18.6% in April to 13.5% in May for a 50% rise in three months.
  • That should see NSA year-ago core inflation only dip from 6.2% to 6.05% Y/Y.
  • Prices of new and used vehicles can rise strongly despite production picking up, with it taking a handful of months of higher production for prices to begin to turn down.
  • Core goods outside of autos have shown a notable sequential slowing and a longer-run slowing may be occurring in many core services, but core services are likely obscured by strength in shelter, medical and transportation.
  • Headline is seen rising +0.89% M/M as, on top of the solid core rate above, gasoline largely reverses the seasonally adjusted April decline (rising circa 4%). It would see the NSA year-ago firm back to the March high of 8.5% Y/Y.
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