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National And RBC Below Consensus Jobs Growth On Lack Of Supply

CANADA
  • National expect job creation to still be more modest given the limited numbers of workers still on the sidelines, seeing job growth of 20k in May (cons. 27.5k) after April’s 15k.
  • Assuming an unchanged participation rate at 65.3%, that would leave the u/e rate at 5.2%.
  • RBC similarly expect jobs growth to match April’s 15k, but not from any shortfall in demand where job openings are running ~70% above pre-pandemic levels.
  • The u/e rate touched 5.2% in April, the lowest since at least 1976, so RBC expect additional demand for workers from now on to show up in wage growth than employment counts.
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