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Free AccessUniCredit: First Rate Hike in September
- It has become clear that the very accommodative policy of the SNB is drawing to an end, after maintaining an interest-rate level of -0.75% for more than seven years. Some SNB watchers have recently even argued that there will be a rate hike already at the quarterly meeting in June in order to demonstrate the independence of Swiss monetary policymaking.
- In our view, such a “preemptive” move before the ECB starts normalizing interest rates is still unlikely for two major reasons. First, the SNB is in a rather comfortable position, as inflation rates in Switzerland are low compared to those in other European countries. Second, and probably even more importantly, the SNB might not want to narrow the interest-rate gap with the euro zone, even for a brief period. Thus, this would actively make the Swiss franc more attractive for investors and cause volatility on FX markets.
- It is likely that policymakers will sound decisively more hawkish. We expect the first tightening by 25bp to be announced at the meeting on 22 September. At that time, the ECB might have already increased the depo rate twice. This should give Swiss policymakers enough room to maneuver to start their own normalization in monetary policy. Going forward, we expect two further rate hikes of 25bp each to be announced at the following meetings in 4Q22 and 1Q23.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.