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JPMorgan Raised Year-End Selic Forecast to 13.75%

BRAZIL
  • JPMorgan forecast a 50bp hike at this Wednesday’s decision, in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
  • However, JPM believe that President Bolsonaro’s push for near-term inflation relief through tax cuts may prompt the central bank to extend its cycle of aggressive interest rate hikes.
  • The bank’s economists raised their year-end Selic call to 13.75% from 13.25%, according to a report, saying policy makers will deliver their final borrowing cost boost in August.
  • “The recent fiscal activism, with the government proposing expansionary policies to reduce -mainly- energy prices, was particularly decisive for our change of heart,” analysts wrote.
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