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Recession Consensus Mounts: Timing/Severity Vary (4/4)

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Rabobank: "A recession seems difficult to avoid. Either the exogenous supply shocks are going to bring down business activity or the Fed’s response to high and persistent inflation is going to do the job. The timing of the recession will depend on whether it is caused by exogenous or endogenous factors. Given the strong labor market and robust consumption and investment at the moment we think that the endogenous will be decisive. This means it is more likely going to be the recession of 2023 rather than the recession of 2022."
  • Wells Fargo: "We forecast that real GDP will decline for two consecutive quarters in mid-2023 with a peak-to-trough contraction of about 1%...the recession will be more or less equivalent in magnitude and duration to the downturn of 1990-1991. That recession lasted for two quarters with a peak-to-trough decline in real GDP of 1.4%. Recession next year is not necessarily assured, and the Fed may still be able to pull off an economic soft landing. But prospects of a soft landing are looking increasingly less credible, and we now judge that recession next year is more likely than not."
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