MNI BRIEF: China Focus On Boosting Consumption In 2025

MNI BRIEF: China To Cut Rates, Boost Borrowing-Work Conference

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, December 12

MNI BRIEF: Beijing To Protect Firms From U.S. Bill - MOFCOM

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY28.8 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1854 Thurs; -1.13% Y/Y

MNI: SWEDEN FINAL NOV CPIF +1.8% Y/Y

MNI:AUSTRALIA NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +3.9%

MNI: US NOV TREASURY BUDGET -$366.8B

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPMorgan: Revise Terminal Rate Forecast To 10.25% To Be Reached By Q1’23

MEXICO
  • While there was speculation about a possible 100bp hike, JPM thought this unlikely, particularly for a central bank that tends to move very cautiously. That does not mean it is off the table, but many factors would have to move in the same “wrong” direction for it to become a tangible possibility (Fed, CPI, CPI expectations).
  • Banxico showed acute concerns about inflation on many fronts. The Bank mentioned the risks to inflation were “considerably” skewed to the upside, a step-up in its categorization of the magnitude of the risk. They also pointed out for the first time in recent history that not only medium-term but also long-term inflation expectations have moved north, which JPM have pointed several times is something to which Banxico is very sensitive.
  • JPMorgan think concerns on which Banxico is basing its decisions are not going to change anytime soon: CPI will remain very high, and sequential momentum also strong, expectations could further drift higher, and Fed will continue to tighten. On inflation, it’s worth noting developments in the labor market that could slow the downward trend expected for CPI.
  • On these factors JPM revise up their terminal rate forecast to 10.25% from 9.25% to be reached by 1Q23, including a 75bp hike in August instead of 50bp.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.