Political betting market Predictit has seen a significant increase in betting on the generic congressional ballot tightening to less than 1.9% by tomorrow. The change in betting dynamics is likely due to the impact of Friday's Supreme Court ruling on Dobbs vs Jackson.
- One of the key questions ahead of the midterms is whether or not the SCOTUS decision will fundamentally alter the dynamics of a midterm cycle which was predicted by many likely to hand both chambers of Congress to the GOP.
- The Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot tracker showed the GOP at +3.8 when the Supreme Court released its ruling. That has since tightened to 2.8 based on a NPR/PBS/Marist poll which reported a dramatic swing towards Democrats.
- Tomorrow will see the release of another batch of generic ballot polling which should determine whether a trend has emerged or suggest that the NPR/PBS/Marist was an outlier.
- This morning the Cook Political Report wrote: “The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance.”
Generic Congressional Ballot by June 29predictit.com