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Growing Inversion In BAX Curve

CANADA
  • Coming back after Canada Day, BAX futures implied yields have seen further inversion through 2023, with front contracts little changed ahead of the PMI and BoC surveys (BAZ2 -2bps from Thu close) but softening more notably further (BAZ3 -8bps).
  • The move largely replicates growth fears seen elsewhere, with growing inversion through 2023 as 25bps of cuts are priced (BAZ2/BAZ3) although that lags 75bps inversion in the Eurodollars equivalent.
  • That shift has driven late 2023/early 2024 yields back to levels seen after the last BoC on Jun 1, some 50bps lower than after the Jun 15 FOMC.

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