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1.25% Jul-51

GILT AUCTION PREVIEW
  • The DMO will come to the market this morning for the final gilt auction of 2021 with GBP1.5bln of the 30-year 1.25% Jul-51 gilt on offer.
  • This will be a notably smaller auction than the GBP2.0bln that have been seen at every auction since the gilt was launched in April via syndication (for GBP6bln).
  • After having seen tails of 0.2bp and 0.5bp in June and August, the last auction on 28 September saw a tail of 1.1bp.
  • The tail will be closely watched after the last long-dated gilt auction on 16 November saw a tail of 1.0bp (the 0.875% Jan-46 gilt) and last week’s launch of a new 10-year gilt (the 1.00% Jan-32) saw a tail of 1.9bp which saw the gilt futures contract fall.
  • There has been a notable widening of tails at gilt auctions since the day preceding the Autumn Budget – tails have been 1.0bp in the six auctions since, compared to 0.4bp in the six auctions prior to that (and 0.4bp for the fiscal YTD average too).
  • This is probably largely due to a lack of liquidity in the market given the continued BOE purchases under its APF programme at the time of a sharp slowdown in issuance from the DMO.
  • With auction sizes having fallen, however, there has not really been a notable corresponding fall in bid-to-cover ratios to match the wider tails.
  • Timing: Results will be available shortly after the auction closes at 10:00GMT.

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