(1) Following the defeat of PM Theresa May's.....>

UK: (1) Following the defeat of PM Theresa May's Brexit deal, parliament will

now vote on whether to pursue 'no deal' or seek a Brexit extension. Some initial

thoughts:

- It is unlikely that parliament votes for 'no deal'. Parliament has previously

voted in favour of the advisory Spelman no-deal amendment (318 to 310) in

January, which stated that the UK should not leave the EU without a deal.

Although this was a narrow win, it partly reflected the politics at that time as

many MPs wanted to keep the threat of no-deal on the table as negotiations with

the EU were ongoing. This time around, voting in favour of no-deal would almost

certainly entail significant economic upheaval and a leap into the unknown - a

proposition that few MPs would countenance. In addition, PM May managed to

secure around 20 new Tory backers for her deal yesterday, which further suggests

that the pool of potential no-deal voters would not be sufficient to get today's

amendment over the line.