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1 Month USD/KRW Rebounds Back Towards 1300, Nov Trade Data Out Today


1 month USD/KRW finished the Thursday NY session at 1298.60, close to session highs. This was a won loss of 0.75%, as broader USD sentiment recovered amid a yield bounce. The decent rebound in USD/JPY also likely weighed on KRW yesterday. Note the onshore spot close for Thursday was 1290.10.

  • Recent lows in the 1 month NDF have been in the 1281/1284 region, so these levels will be watched on the downside. Note the declining 20-day EMA comes in near 1303.4, while late Nov highs were just above 1306.
  • On the data front today, we have Nov trade figures on tap. The market expects export growth of 5.0% y/y (prior 5.1%), imports are projected at -8.6% y/y (prior -9.7%). This is seen leaving the trade surplus at $1000mn (prior $1627mn). Later on, we get the Nov manufacturing PMI.
  • In the equity space, we saw some underperformance of tech plays. The SOX loss 0.77% for Thursday's session, while the MSCI IT fell 0.06%, the first loss of the week. The US real 10yr yield rose 8bps to 2.14%.
  • To recap, the Kospi rose 0.61% yesterday to end the month at 2535. Offshore investors added $198.1mn to local stocks, bringing Nov equity inflows to +$3.26bn.

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