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10-year gilts underperform Bunds and USTs this morning

GILTS
  • Gilt futures are down over 90 ticks this morning, with 10-year yields moving 8.0bp higher on the day, abigger moves than seen in USTs or Bunds.
  • The larger driver of gilts this morning is the general risk-on feel to markets with European banks and equities higher again on the day as banking concerns continue to wane. However, we also think that the comments last night from Governor Bailey are helping to contribute to the weakness in gilts. He acknowledged that February inflation was a bit higher than expected (and January was a bit lower) - language in our view that was a little more forcefully than used in the MPC statement last week.
  • In contrast to US and German curves that have bear flattened on the day, the gilt curve is again seeing a largely parallel move through 10s.
  • 2y yields up 8.2bp today at 3.377%, 5y yields up 6.2bp at 3.273%, 10y yields up 8.4bp at 3.446% and 30y yields up 6.6bp at 3.869%.
  • 2s10s up 0.3bp today at 7.0bp and 10s30s down -1.9bp at 42.2bp.
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