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US TSYS
10-Year Tsy yields breach the 4.00% mark during the Asia-London handover, with participants gearing up for the impending NFP release (see our full preview of that event here)
- The round number limited yesterday’s post-U.S. data sell off in Tsys.
- 10s have printed at 4.02% on the follow, with the move looking flow-/technical-driven, given the lack of headline flow observed around the time of the cheapening.
- Bond bears have not been willing to push the marker too far beyond the Dec 14 high (4.202%) for now.
- The 200-DMA is also helping cap the move, as is the German retail sales data.
- A clean breach of those markers would expose the Dec 6/7 lows (4.102%), with intermediate Fibonacci resistance providing some protection.
- Positioning indicators (OI & J.P.Morgan Tsy client survey) have pointed to short setting/a reduction of longs in Tsys during recent sessions.
- A reminder that yesterday’s notable option flow included the lifting of ~20K of week 1 TY puts (which expire later today) targeting a move to 4.15% in 10-Year Tsy yields.
Fig. 1: U.S. 10-Year Tsy Yields (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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