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10s Back To Mid-March Levels, Late Yr Rate Cuts Receding

US TSY FUTURES
Treasury futures continue to extend session lows in late trade: 10Y futures through key support of 113-30.5 (Apr 19 low) to 113-28.5, just above major support at 113-26 Mar 22 Low).
  • Main factors in play included hawkish Fed speak: Dallas Fed Logan signaled support for an eleventh straight Fed rate hike in June amid sticky core inflation and still-high wages. "The data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting. As of today, though, we aren’t there yet," Logan stated.
  • While optimism over a debt ceiling resolution to avoid default helped push stocks to their best levels since early May, rates trade weaker ahead a likely deluge in bill issuance (estimated over $1T) as the Treasury moves to increase cash buffers following a debt ceiling resolution, roughly the same impact as a 25bp rate hike all else equal.
  • Fed funds implied move for the next FOMC on June 14 inches up to 8.1bp, while projected late year rate cuts recede: September cumulative is -4.9bp (-20.8bp early Tuesday) at 5.030%, November cumulative -22.8bp (-43.7bp early Tuesday) at 4.851%, Dec'23 cumulative -44.6bp (-69.0bp Tuesday) at 4.633%, while Jan'24 cumulative is -64.7bp (-93.3bp Tuesday) at 4.32%. Fed Terminal currently at 5.165% in Jul'23 this morning.
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