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10Y Yield Lower Ahead of May CPI Print (June 9)

HUNGARY
  • As for Poland, we saw that the rise in inflationary pressures in the CEE region in the past two months has led to an increase in disagreements between NBH policymakers over the trajectory of rates in the coming months; the hawkish comment from deputy governor Virag led to a strong momentum on HUF in May, with the currency appreciating by 5.5% against the US Dollar (ZAR and HUF were the best performers in the CEEMEA FX market in May).
  • This morning, economic data showed that industrial production rose by 59.2% in April (less than 68.9% exp.), up from 16.2% the previous month.
  • Next important data to watch this week is the May CPI print coming on June 9, which is expected to rise to 5.3% (from 5.1%).
  • Global liquidity and recent HUF strength continues to levitate Hungarian equities to new record highs, with BUX index breaking above its 48,000 resistance.
  • USDHUF has been retracing higher in the past few days, currently trading slightly above the 285 level; resistances to watch on the topside stand at 290 and 295 (50D SMA). On the downside, first support to watch stands at 280.
  • The 10Y yield has been retracing lower in the past few days after rejecting its 3% resistance last Wednesday; support to watch on the downside stands at 2.81% (50D SMA). On the topside, key resistance to watch above 3% stands at 3.22%.
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