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10Y Yield Taps Mid-Nov High, Focus on Wed's CPI, Fed Minutes

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures finished weaker but off lows Monday, 10Y yield marking the highest level since mid-November at 4.4621%.
  • The NY Fed’s consumer inflation expectations were mixed in March. Full report here. Otherwise, limited data to speak of for the next two sessions, focus on Wednesday's CPI and March FOMC minutes, PPI on Thursday.
  • Projected rate cut pricing continued to ebb: May 2024 at -4.7bp w/ cumulative -1.2bp at 5.317%; June 2024 at -48.8% w/ cumulative rate cut -13.4bp at 5.195%. July'24 cumulative at -22.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -38.2bp.
  • A downtrend in Treasuries remains intact and today’s move lower marks a bearish start to the week. The contract has breached support at 109-09+, the Apr 3 low to confirm a resumption of this year's downtrend. The break lower opens the 109-00 handle and 108-25+, a Fibonacci projection level. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 110-31+, the Mar 27 high. First resistance to watch is 110-06, the Apr 4 high.
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