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10Y Yields Sink to 3.8% Ahead Jan Employment Report

US TSYS
  • Tsys finished strong but off late morning highs Thursday, concerns over regional bank weakness helped push Treasury futures to the highest levels since late December '23 with TYH4 tapping 113-06.5 high (+28), well through initial resistance of 112-26.5 (Jan 12 high) focus on 113-12 (Dec 27 high and bull trigger). 10Y yield falls to 3.8147% low.
  • Late morning rally appeared to be related to wider concerns over NY regional banks after New York Community Bancorp (purchaser of collapsed Signature Bank shares) fell over 40% yesterday and as much as 14% again today before paring losses to -11%. Meanwhile KBW Regional Banking Index is down -2.29% from -5.13% at midday.
  • Knock-on effect saw projected rate cut chances above post-FOMC highs briefly Thursday, before moderating in the second half.
  • Early support: Tsy futures extended highs after higher than expected Initial Jobless Claims (242k vs. 212k est) and Continuing Claims (1.898M vs. 1.839M est, prior down-revised slightly to 1.828M from 1.833M).
  • Meanwhile Nonfarm Productivity higher than expected at 3.2% vs 2.5% est (prior down-revised to 4.9% from 5.2%) while Unit Labor Costs came in at 0.5% vs. 1.2% est (prior revised to -1.1% from -1.2%).
  • Look ahead Friday Data Calendar: Jan Employ Report, UofM Inflation Expectations
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