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12-Month Inflation Expectations Marginally Decrease; GDP Growth Estimates Rise

TURKEY
  • Inflation expectation in the next 12 months has fallen to 29.84% from 31.02% the month prior, according to the central bank’s survey of market participants in May. The year-end inflation estimate is 37.17% (Prior: 37.77%) while the estimate of inflation in the next 24 months is 17.74% (Prior: 17.54%). 2023 GDP growth is estimated at 3.7% (Prior: 3.5%) while 2024 GDP growth is seen as 4.6% (Prior: 4.4%).
  • According to Dunya’s banking sources, most private banks have hit the brakes on loans following increasing liraization measures being implemented by the central bank ahead of the runoff elections on May 28.
    • As a reminder, the central bank imposed additional FX conversion targets for lenders, telling them to shift more hard currency into FX-protected TRY retail accounts. In addition, the central bank has taken aim at high demand for gold among households and is also looking to discourage cash withdrawals using credit cards.
  • Ekonomi report that banking officials say interest rates on FX-protected lira deposit accounts could rise to 40%-50% following the central bank’s latest measures that target higher conversion rates from FX.
  • The real sector’s FX position has improved while the share of lira in household assets has increased, the central bank says in its biannual financial stability report. The report also says that consumer loan growth started slowing after central bank measures, and that the Bank will continue to support the development of production and current surplus capacity through the policy rate and targeted loan/liquidity policies.
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