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US DATA: 12-Month Rolling Budget Deficit At Highest Since Jul 2023

US DATA
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November's budget balance was in deficit by $356.5B, about $10B more than expected and a jump from $314B in October.

  • This brings the 12-month rolling deficit to $2.08T, the highest since Jul 2023. That is closer to 7% than 6% of 2025 (calendar year) projected GDP.
  • Treasury doesn't provide analysis of the figures in the report. But through the first two months of the fiscal year, the total deficit is tracking $624B, one-third of the $1.88T full-year estimate (based on the OMB's July estimates- though of course while most months will register deficits, tax dates including April's will help offset the widening trend).
  • The incoming Trump administration hopes to make room for tax cuts in part through paring inefficiencies/spending, but as the graphic provided by the Treasury underlines, most spending is on non-discretionary items  (of $1.25T of total outlays so far in FY2025, $900B was spent on Social Security, Medicare, National Defense, and Net Interest).
  • Once again, net interest payments were a key factor, totaling $79.4B - similar to the past several months but with rates rising (and considering the ballooning size of the debt pile), the 12-month rolling total has hit fresh all-time high of $893B.
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November's budget balance was in deficit by $356.5B, about $10B more than expected and a jump from $314B in October.

  • This brings the 12-month rolling deficit to $2.08T, the highest since Jul 2023. That is closer to 7% than 6% of 2025 (calendar year) projected GDP.
  • Treasury doesn't provide analysis of the figures in the report. But through the first two months of the fiscal year, the total deficit is tracking $624B, one-third of the $1.88T full-year estimate (based on the OMB's July estimates- though of course while most months will register deficits, tax dates including April's will help offset the widening trend).
  • The incoming Trump administration hopes to make room for tax cuts in part through paring inefficiencies/spending, but as the graphic provided by the Treasury underlines, most spending is on non-discretionary items  (of $1.25T of total outlays so far in FY2025, $900B was spent on Social Security, Medicare, National Defense, and Net Interest).
  • Once again, net interest payments were a key factor, totaling $79.4B - similar to the past several months but with rates rising (and considering the ballooning size of the debt pile), the 12-month rolling total has hit fresh all-time high of $893B.