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BLOCK: Red Dec'22 Put Spd


Bullish Focus


Is CPI Inflation About to Decelerate?


Breaches Support


Remains Under Pressure

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  • The 7D SMA of daily new Covid cases continue fell below 2,900, down from 4,200 the week before (and from 28,900 on April 1st). Poland PM Morawiecki said that the country will reopen cinemas and theatres on Friday, May 21, eight days earlier than originally planned.
  • On Friday, Final April CPI inflation came in at 4.3% (as Prelim) and GDP growth contracted less than expected in Q1, by -1.2% YoY (vs. -1.4% exp.).
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that April core CPI came in higher than expected at 3.9% (vs. 3.7% exp. and flat from previous month).
  • The 2023 breakeven inflation rate continues to trend higher, currently trading at 3.9%; hence, the bond market is currently not expecting inflationary pressures to ease in the second half of this year.
  • We have seen recently that a rising number of policymakers have been expressing their concerns over inflation risks, which could lead to a rise in disagreements over the trajectory of rates in the medium term.
  • Next economic data to watch are Average Gross Wages and Employment growth on May 20.